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Nifty CPSE & Nifty PSE - Setting up for a Breakout
Indices covered – Nifty CPSE , NIFTY PSE
Stocks Covered – Powergrid, Ongc, Ntpc , Coal India and Bpcl
Nifty RSI at 80 - What happens next ? Slow drift or a quick fall?
We look at what happens at 80-85 RSI over the last 10 plus years.
Two Older Posts which are a good read now -
A lot of points to ponder on are pretty similar even now at 17.3k as it was at 14k.
1) Nifty at 40 PE. Sell Everything and Run Away !!
How Data Lies?
- The Assumptions lie here. Any Investors in his Sane Mind would not sell all his investments for a Day ?.
- Why would you add or deduct 1-day returns and then Sum it Up?
- What would prove Time is More Important. Even if you Buy at the Worst Points in History in Long Term the returns are decent.
- That Data Sucks!
- Check this - #CAGR of #Nifty if you got the #Cycle right or Wrong.
- CAGR from 09th January 2009 is 14.3% ,
- CAGR from 9th January 2003 is 15.35% ,
- CAGR 09th January 1995 is 10.5%.
- And if you bought on 9th January 2008 the #CAGR is 6.6% !!!”
- CAGR of Sensex from Harshad Mehta peak after almost 29-30 years is sub 9% !!
Remember Timing the Market could also be about going to 10-20-30-40% cash.
But theoretically, everyone will use 100% Equity or 100% Cash for all calculations as that's Binary and Scary!
2) Nifty Earnings–The Perfect Sher Aaya Story.
A snippet from the post
Are we in a Bull Market or Not.
Some of the simple options can be
- We are at the start of the Bull Market.
- We are in the middle of the Bull Market.
- There is a lot more to go in this Bull Market.
- We are at Top of the Bull Market.
- We are not in a Bull Market.
- This is a Bear Market Rally ( Kinda odd )
- I Do Not Know!
One needs to go to very high cash say 10% to 40% or more if the answers are from 4-6.
One needs to go to tactical cash at 2-4 to either Buy Back on Dips or Switch for New Sector/Stocks.
One needs to be looking to deploy new cash if answer is 1-3.
For answer 7 – This is best. Stick to your long-term asset allocation and thumb rules.
Smallcase Launch - Smallcase Launch–Top 10 Insider Trading, Top 10 Techno Funda, Top 10 Value & Thematic Smallcases.
Online Technical Analysis Video Course – A good time to now do it.
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