After a long time starting to do Video Analysis. My first analysis video was back in 2008 !
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Nifty CPSE & Nifty PSE - Setting up for a Breakout
Indices covered – Nifty CPSE , NIFTY PSE
Stocks Covered – Powergrid, Ongc, Ntpc , Coal India and Bpcl
Nifty RSI at 80 - What happens next ? Slow drift or a quick fall?
We look at what happens at 80-85 RSI over the last 10 plus years.
Two Older Posts which are a good read now -
A lot of points to ponder on are pretty similar even now at 17.3k as it was at 14k.
How Data Lies?
- The Assumptions lie here. Any Investors in his Sane Mind would not sell all his investments for a Day ?.
- Why would you add or deduct 1-day returns and then Sum it Up?
- What would prove Time is More Important. Even if you Buy at the Worst Points in History in Long Term the returns are decent.
- That Data Sucks!
- Check this - #CAGR of #Nifty if you got the #Cycle right or Wrong.
- CAGR from 09th January 2009 is 14.3% ,
- CAGR from 9th January 2003 is 15.35% ,
- CAGR 09th January 1995 is 10.5%.
- And if you bought on 9th January 2008 the #CAGR is 6.6% !!!”
- CAGR of Sensex from Harshad Mehta peak after almost 29-30 years is sub 9% !!
Remember Timing the Market could also be about going to 10-20-30-40% cash.
But theoretically, everyone will use 100% Equity or 100% Cash for all calculations as that's Binary and Scary!
A snippet from the post
Are we in a Bull Market or Not.
Some of the simple options can be
- We are at the start of the Bull Market.
- We are in the middle of the Bull Market.
- There is a lot more to go in this Bull Market.
- We are at Top of the Bull Market.
- We are not in a Bull Market.
- This is a Bear Market Rally ( Kinda odd )
- I Do Not Know!
One needs to go to very high cash say 10% to 40% or more if the answers are from 4-6.
One needs to go to tactical cash at 2-4 to either Buy Back on Dips or Switch for New Sector/Stocks.
One needs to be looking to deploy new cash if answer is 1-3.
For answer 7 – This is best. Stick to your long-term asset allocation and thumb rules.
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