Nifty Calculator–Kya Lagta Hai Market 16500 or 14500– Make Your Calculated Guess

 

NIFTY CALCULATOR – CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD.

 

What is Nifty Calculator ?

-> As per the weightages given by NSE for Nifty stocks we have created the Nifty Calculator.

-> Change the expected price and the expected Nifty will change accordingly

-> Create 3 different sheets for yourself–

Pessimistic ( where you put the worst possible prices you think . Default 15% down )

Optimistic ( the best prices possible. Default 15% up)

Neutral/Rational/Technical / Fundamental ( prices on any reasoning )

Please Note as weightages change every day by small margin this will not give an accurate estimate but will be approximate.

How to Guess?

• Everyone has a view on Nifty based on Macro, PE, Valuations, Technicals, Waves etc. Try to grill it down to the constituents. It should be a reflection of your actual guesstimate.
• Just estimating wild scenarios on the top 20 stocks is enough given the 75-80% weight.
• Start with changing default fall to 5-10-15-20-40-80 or rise to 5-10-20-40-80.
• Then change stocks which you think may not do the default move.

 

Interesting Observations

• Top 5 stocks – Reliance, HDFC Bank, Infosys, HDFC, ICICI Bank = 41.43% of Nifty.  (Nifty at an all time high but none of the top 5 stocks have hit a new all time high !! )
• Top 10 stocks constitutes 58.92% of Nifty  ( some drift lower )
• Top 20 stocks constitutes 76.64% of Nifty   ( around the same for last few months.)
• Reliance is the top weight at 10.36%, followed by  HDFC Bank at 9.79% . 20.15% of the Index. 
• Reliance + HDFC Twins = 27% of Nifty ( Hope you get it why Nifty does not depict GDP. 27% of India GDP not equal to Reliance +HDFC)
• HDFC Twins together constitutes 16.61% of Nifty  ( same for some time)
• Bottom 26 stocks have less than 1% weight and total weight at 19.07%

Sectoral Observations

• Banks and Financials now steady at 38% for last few months. From a bottom of 33.165 in July 2020.
• Oil and Gas from 16.18% in July 2020 to 12% ( Reliance relative underperformance.)
• Power at just 1.64%. After a long time Media at 0. Metals from 2.15 to 3.63%

 

Sector	May-21	Apr-21	Jan-21	Dec-20	Jul-20	May-20	Apr-20	Mar-20	Oct-19	Sep-19	Aug-19	Jul-19	Jun-19	May-19
FINANCIAL SERVICES	38.06	37.81	38.12	38.78	33.16	33.34	36.19	36.51	39.48	39.29	39.48	40.25	40.39	39.87
IT	16.15	16.53	17.13	16.28	16.11	14.66	14.48	15.04	13.01	13.88	15.36	14.80	13.71	13.76
CONSUMER GOODS	11.02	11.1	11.06	11.53	12.64	13.41	13.08	14.46	12.39	12.35	11.04	11.00	10.66	10.74
OIL & GAS	12.04	11.79	11.99	12.49	16.18	14.29	13.92	12.45	15.30	14.74	14.42	13.97	14.37	14.74
AUTOMOBILE	5.34	5.23	5.91	5.39	5.61	5.55	5.00	4.54	6.11	5.52	5.42	5.16	5.71	5.94
TELECOM	1.92	2.05	2.26	2.03	3.20	3.59	3.16	3.13	1.78	1.94	1.94	1.87	1.84	1.71
CONSTRUCTION	2.63	2.56	2.74	2.61	2.38	2.89	2.70	2.79	3.72	3.86	3.65	3.78	3.99	4.00
PHARMA	3.54	3.66	3.47	3.61	3.18	3.35	3.11	2.72	2.15	2.07	2.33	2.31	2.15	2.21
METALS	3.63	3.65	2.38	2.50	2.15	2.70	2.62	2.52	2.93	3.03	2.96	3.29	3.60	3.43
POWER	1.64	1.66	1.53	1.61	1.88	2.20	2.13	2.26
CEMENT & CEMENT PRODUCTS	2.53	2.59	2.27	2.15	2.17	2.41	2.12	2.22	1.50	1.57	1.56	1.69	1.74	1.76
SERVICES	0.84	0.84	0.63	0.59	0.51	0.63	0.55	0.54	0.64	0.69	0.64	0.66	0.67	0.68
FERTILISERS & PESTICIDES	0.67	0.53	0.52	0.43	0.56	0.56	0.56	0.50	0.67	0.70	0.69	0.72	0.72	0.76
MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT	0	0	0	0.00	0.27	0.42	0.35	0.32	0.33	0.35	0.49	0.48	0.42	0.41

 

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