Nifty Calculator- 16000 or 13000 first ?

NIFTY CALCULATOR – CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD.

What is Nifty Calculator ?

-> As per the weightages given by NSE for Nifty stocks we have created the Nifty Calculator.

-> Change the expected price and the expected Nifty will change accordingly

-> Create 3 different sheets for yourself–

Pessimistic ( where you put the worst possible prices you think . Default 15% down )

Optimistic ( the best prices possible. Default 15% up)

Neutral/Rational/Technical / Fundamental ( prices on any reasoning )

Please Note as weightages change every day by small margin this will not give an accurate estimate but will be approximate.

How to Guess?

• Everyone has a view on Nifty based on Macro, PE, Valuations, Technicals, Waves etc. Try to grill it down to the constituents. It should be a reflection of your actual guesstimate.
• Just estimating wild scenarios on the top 20 stocks is enough given the 80% weight.
• Start with changing default fall to 5-10-15-20-40-80 or rise to 5-10-20-40-80.
• Then change stocks which you think may not do the default move.

Interesting Observations

• Top 5 stocks – Reliance, HDFC Bank, Infosys, HDFC, ICICI Bank = 41.3% of Nifty.  ( no clear trend in them)
• Top 10 stocks constitutes 59.27% of Nifty  ( some drift lower )
• Top 20 stocks constitutes 76.58% of Nifty   ( some drift lower. Rest of the Nifty performing.)
• Reliance is the top weight at 10.19%, followed by  HDFC Bank at 9.72% . 20% of the Index.
• HDFC Twins together constitutes 16.61% of Nifty  ( drifting lower)
• Bottom 26 stocks have less than 1% weight and total weight at 19%

Sectoral Observations -

• Metals at 3.65% highest in quite some time and equal to Pharma Weight.
• Consumers after peaking at 14.46 in March 20 now back to 11.
• Banking & FInancial services makes a comeback from the low of 33.16% in July 2020.

 

Sector	Apr-21	Jan-21	Dec-20	Jul-20	May-20	Apr-20	Mar-20	Oct-19	Sep-19	Aug-19	Jul-19	Jun-19	May-19	Apr-19
FINANCIAL SERVICES	37.81	38.12	38.78	33.16	33.34	36.19	36.51	39.48	39.29	39.48	40.25	40.39	39.87	37.95
IT	16.53	17.13	16.28	16.11	14.66	14.48	15.04	13.01	13.88	15.36	14.80	13.71	13.76	14.46
CONSUMER GOODS	11.1	11.06	11.53	12.64	13.41	13.08	14.46	12.39	12.35	11.04	11.00	10.66	10.74	11.24
OIL & GAS	11.79	11.99	12.49	16.18	14.29	13.92	12.45	15.30	14.74	14.42	13.97	14.37	14.74	15.31
AUTOMOBILE	5.23	5.91	5.39	5.61	5.55	5.00	4.54	6.11	5.52	5.42	5.16	5.71	5.94	6.11
TELECOM	2.05	2.26	2.03	3.20	3.59	3.16	3.13	1.78	1.94	1.94	1.87	1.84	1.71	1.62
CONSTRUCTION	2.56	2.74	2.61	2.38	2.89	2.70	2.79	3.72	3.86	3.65	3.78	3.99	4.00	3.51
PHARMA	3.66	3.47	3.61	3.18	3.35	3.11	2.72	2.15	2.07	2.33	2.31	2.15	2.21	2.43
METALS	3.65	2.38	2.50	2.15	2.70	2.62	2.52	2.93	3.03	2.96	3.29	3.60	3.43	3.72
POWER	1.66	1.53	1.61	1.88	2.20	2.13	2.26
CEMENT & CEMENT PRODUCTS	2.59	2.27	2.15	2.17	2.41	2.12	2.22	1.50	1.57	1.56	1.69	1.74	1.76	1.77
SERVICES	0.84	0.63	0.59	0.51	0.63	0.55	0.54	0.64	0.69	0.64	0.66	0.67	0.68	0.65
FERTILISERS & PESTICIDES	0.53	0.52	0.43	0.56	0.56	0.56	0.50	0.67	0.70	0.69	0.72	0.72	0.76	0.75
MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT	0	0	0.00	0.27	0.42	0.35	0.32	0.33	0.35	0.49	0.48	0.42	0.41	0.51

 

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Can buy the course from this link and go through the entire curriculum ( Course Content & Curriculum )

https://www.analyseindia.com/course/onlinetechnicalanalysiscourse/?tab=tab-curriculum