Having picked this turnaround in such a timely manner by gods grace it has kept me way too busy with the stock picking , momentum trades ( obviously on long side ) so have not been able to update the blog. At so many points of time over the last 3 weeks we have had 10-12 open positions on trading side.
On the Nifty side as being mentioned the rally could surprise big time to be frank the move beyond 5100-5150 has come as a surprise to me as well.
The view remains we may see a short term top out at the higher end of the channel. Even if it crosses 5230 levels meaningfully we would expect it to be a failure as its the first breakout. Also considering the fact not many have participated into the rally ( coz of the 4400/4000 Nifty surety and confidence ) the dip may not come fast as there will remain a lot of left out feeling and short covering.
Although we do have a short view initiated at 5120/5180 with a stoploss of 5230 on spot levels the Midcap sector now remains a favorite as we see a lot of turnarounds here and can see sharp jump of 15-20%
Some of the stocks have been discussed below. Disclosure : We have initiated fresh buying in the same in last couple of sessions.
Many other stocks like BHEL( mentioned in this post ) Larsen & Toubro ( check post here ) , Reliance Inds ( check post here ) good moves as expected but mind you its a long term bet.
Some other charts Tata Motors and SBI ( check post here ), BF Utility
Had clearly mentioned exactly a week back at 4650 levels on January 3rd 2012 that Nifty is setting up for a short term rally is the Bearish consensus had become very high. Also the technical reasons were specified in this post — Short Term Rally
People can also start following me on https://twitter.com/nooreshtech for some snippets.
Also for the good response for Master Blaster scheme here is the quick performance review. For more about our Advisory Services check www.analyseindia.com
If you are a High Networth Investor/Trader/Broker or Corporate Institutions and looking for customized services on Advisory , Training can sms me on 09819225396 will get back to you post market hours or drop in a mail to nooreshtech@analyseindia.com .
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Every Bull Market starts with a Bear Market Rally.
Happy Investing,
Nooresh Merani
January 27, 2012
Nooresh,
Please comment on RCOM. It looks very over bought but not budging.
January 27, 2012
Hi Nooresh
been following your blog for few weeks now. One of the things i would like to mention is at 4500 Nifty – index had no connect with overall market . esp, with midcap and small cap. that disconnect should be remembered now as well. index can go to 4900 or 4700 again without correction in midcap – small cap
BTW – let me not miss this opportunity to say you are excellent analyst. Congratulations!
January 27, 2012
Exactly the reason 🙂 for this tweet on 24th January
My targets on the upside done on Nifty, bank nifty. Time to create some speculative shorts on index and long midcaps is the preferred trade
24 Jan
The trade has gone super good with midcaps up 10-15% and Nifty up only 1-1.5% and Bank stocks down which has again been a preferred short trade.
Continue to expect midcaps outperformance.
January 27, 2012
Sir,
What is view on RELINFRA and TATASTEEL , IVRCL
all of hem have moved much in the last week
January 27, 2012
Now i would wait.
January 27, 2012
Hi Nooresh,
Any views on IVRCL? It has seen a strong upmove… any targets/ recommendations here.
Thanks,
Anand
January 27, 2012
Hi Anand,
Seems the stock has seen the worst. Will wait for declines
January 27, 2012
Hi Nooresh,
I have short position on Nifty Feb Future at 5150. (Now at 5200+) What should be my Stoploss on a closing basis. I thought that the Nifty will cool down to 5050, but it doesn’t seem to be heading lower. Should i hold it at least till 5250?
BTW, Master Blaster Service is really good. All the last week calls such as Tata Global, Karnataka Bank, EKC have been hit.
Thanks.
January 28, 2012
Hi Ritesh,
Now its all about the horizon. Index has to dip whether it stops at 5200 or 5300. We are keeping a stop of 5230 on closing basis on risk-reward basis but very much long on midcaps.
Yes the master blaster stocks have blasted 🙂
January 27, 2012
Nooresh,
Please Share your views on Suzlon. its rallied 20-25% in last 4 days. Can we start shorting that stock now??
January 28, 2012
Wouldnt go against the trend. Right now its spiking let it give some reversal signs
January 28, 2012
Nooresh…Whats ur take on Suzlon, Skumars, GVK power and PSL?
Thanks for providing us your excellent analyst.
January 28, 2012
Hi ,
All look interesting in the next dip
January 28, 2012
Dear Nooresh,
Few month back you have mentioned J B Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd. is in your watch list.Look like it didn’t go much on this upmove. If you have time can you please let me know either TA or FA how it’s look @CMP 68rs
Thanks
January 28, 2012
Hi Ravi,
Its a defensive bet closer to 60. No fireworks.
January 28, 2012
hi noorsh sirof late v hv nt seen ny updates on commodities,ur views on coppersilver and gold plz,
warm regds gauri
January 28, 2012
hi,
Iam always tracking your market analyses,you r the best keep it up..i would be taking
call from u later on for investments..regards.
January 30, 2012
ok Ashish.
January 29, 2012
Interesting analysis, especially for foreign investors. Indeed, they can now invest in India, which has really a promising economy!
January 29, 2012
Hi Nooresh,
What about EDUCOMP ?
January 30, 2012
Educomp looks good can spike up to 240
January 29, 2012
These are the reasons for my bearish view on Nifty for Feb with expected target of 5000-4950 on Nifty.
1. Iran-U.S. Tensions increasing…Oil will rise and will put pressure on Indian Macro Fundamentals and Inflation.
2. India’s rising Current Account deficit will put pressure on Rupee in Feb after rally in Jan 2012. Infosys CFO said on earnings day, that a country with sustained Current account deficit cannot maintain a strong currency.
3. India set to miss Fiscal Deficit target of 4.6% (Point is by how much, markets have already factored 0.4%). Rising commodities will put in further pressure.
4. Subsidies: Feb will see many Govt estimates going off the way. Fertilizer subsidy could be Rs 90,000 crore this year, compared to budget estimate of Rs 50,000 crore. Additional Rs 45,000-60,000 crore to compensate oil companies (Record losses posted by them) may be released in Feb. Even food subsidy is expected to be higher than the budgeted level of Rs 60,000 crore.
5. Most of the Economists (Importantly not market makers who have vested interests) are talking about massive easing that EU will need to survive brings out the message that we will have one more round of panic at some point of time in 2012. Markets will also keenly watch Greece.
6. Above all, Markets have rallied 13% since Jan 2012. So they are ideally poised to cool off. Other factors to watch will be SBI & ICICI results.
I totally agree with Analyse India’s view, that selective midcaps will outperform.
January 30, 2012
Hi Ritesh,
Yes the concerns remain we are also of the view of expecting 5000. Keeping a stoploss of 5230 will keep trailing it lower.
January 29, 2012
Your Master Blaster calls are really excellent. thanks
January 30, 2012
hI Jayanthi,
Keep discipline with all calls we will continue to make our efforts 🙂