For all the super bullish and bearish readers.
Please send me a guesstimate sheet which takes it to 20000 and 24000
This is a good time for exercise. Can mail me on nooreshtech@analyseindia.com
NIFTY CALCULATOR APRIL 2024
Here is a sheet where the expected price is exactly same as closing prices, download the calculator below and input prices in the 'Expected Price' column and get expected Nifty level
Download - Nifty-Calculator-Apr-2024 -
Interesting Observations
• Top 5 stocks – Reliance, HDFC Bank, ICICI bank, Infosys, LT = 38.91% vs 39.05% of Nifty in Mar 2024
• Top 10 stocks constitute 56.63% vs 56.10% of the Nifty in Mar 2024
• Top 20 stocks constitute 74.83% vs 74.88% of the Nifty in Mar 2024.
• HDFC bank Ltd is the top weight at 11.48% vs 11.07% of the Nifty in Mar 2024 (After merger of Hdfc twins), followed by Reliance at 9.96%. 21.44% of the Index.
• Reliance + HDFC= 21.44% of Nifty (Hope you get why Nifty does not depict GDP. 21% of India’s GDP is not equal to Reliance +HDFC)
• Bottom 25 stocks have 1% or less than 1% weight and total weight at 18.84% vs 19.01% in Mar 2024.
• Reliance had a demerger of Jio Financial services which is listed separately now.
Sectoral Observations
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Weightage Changes
• Banks and Financials dropped from recent high of 38.45% in Apr 2023 to 34.3% now increased slightly from Feb 2024.
• Power at 3.11% increased from 2% May 2023.
• Media at 0.
• Oil and Gas from 14.78% in June 2022 to 12.69% (Decreased slightly from Mar 2024). 'Oil and Gas' is now renamed as 'Oil, Gas and Consumable fuels'. Coal India is now classified under Oil, Gas, and Consumable fuels. Earlier it was classified under Metals. IOC out from the index which was classified under Oil and Gas.
• Metals from 3.17% in Feb 2023 to 3.94% (Increasing continuously) . Coal India is now classified under ‘Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels’. Earlier it was under Metals.
• IT weights decreased from 13.05% in Mar 2024 to 12.64%.
• Automobile at 7.78% Increasing steadily from past few months.
• Consumer Durables weight decreased slightly to 2.8% in Apr 2024 from 3.18% in Sep 2023.
• Healthcare at 4.24% decreased from last month.
• Construction material is at 2.00% Increased slightly from past month
• FMCG now at 8.05% decreasing slowly compared to past months from high of 9.97 May 2023.
• Chemicals now at 0 because of exclusion of UPL from Nifty in March 2024 (Inclusion of Shriram Finance)
Do check this video on Nifty Calculator - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbmhiLXYx2k
What is a Nifty Calculator?
-> As per the weightage given by NSE for Nifty stocks we have created the Nifty Calculator.
-> Change the expected price and the expected Nifty will change accordingly
-> Create 3 different sheets for yourself–
Pessimistic (where you put the worst possible prices you think. Default 10% down)
Optimistic (the best prices possible. Default 10% up)
Neutral/Rational/Technical / Fundamental (prices on any reasoning)
Please Note as weights change every day by a small margin this will not give an accurate estimate but will be approximate.
How to Guess?
- Everyone has a view on Nifty based on Macro, PE, Valuations, Technicals, Waves, etc. Try to grill it down to the constituents. It should be a reflection of your actual guesstimate.
- Just estimating wild scenarios on the top 20 stocks is enough given the 75-80% weight.
- Start with changing the default fall to 5-10-15-20-40-80 or rise to 5-10-20-40-80.
- Then change stocks that you think may not do the default move.
- Also do remember there is not a direct correlation between the economy with the Nifty.
Things to Note
- One of the reasons we keep posting this is to make an actual unbiased guess every month/quarter.
- There have been numerous warnings as to how markets are overheated. Understanding the constituents allows you to realize how Nifty is not supposed to reflect the Economy.
- Nifty is now at its All time high.
- Putting in the numbers looks like we are going to stay sideways for some time. What’s your call?
Thank you for reading the article
