In my last update had mentioned about increasing cash at 7900-8200.
Nifty at 7900 and higher – Time to Increase Cash / Book Partial Profits.
Nifty did not make that move beyond 8000 and dipped to 7700 in the interim.
Now lets take a fresh view on Nifty
Nifty Technical View
- Nifty has around 4-6 attempts at 7950-8000 over the last few months.
- The pattern may look like a Cup and Handle or a Inverse Head and Shoulders or Triangle or in simple words a range breakout could take place above 8000 or 7700.
- Given that the expected target is 8300 or 7400 but the risk-reward was not very suitable for a positional trade so initiated a Nifty Long Strangle of 7700/8000 strikes in our Technical Traders Club and QuickGains Advisory Service as the Range can breakout on one side possibly over the next 1 month.
- It could also turn out to be a momentum trade on sustaining above 7970. If one can keep a little deeper stoploss and ready for the risk involved could be a decent trade.
- Now coming to the little more medium term view. The resistance at 8300 would be a tough one given the cluster of tops/bottoms around that range as well as 61.8% retracement of the fall from 9100 to 6900.
- So would expect markets to take a breather post a rally to 8300.
- For an investor this would again be a time to increase cash ( does not imply 50% but 10-30% depending on individual style.) and book partial profits provided you added some in the dips. Also be look out for new sectors which could possibly be turning around.
Conclusion
- As a trader this could be a momentum move and you need to nimble footed and trail the move or book partial profits if we go to the resistance area.
- As an investor this could be time to have a re-look to your portfolio and keep researching for new turnaround sectors or new performers.
- I can be totally wrong so do your own research and risk management.
10 years Blogging Anniversary
Linkedin yet again reminded me of a work anniversary with a lot of standard messages by contacts on linkedin- "Congrats on the anniversary! Hope you're doing well."
Although i started writing first on orkut communities and some other forums from 2004-2005 and some posts got missed out in migration to wordpress but very active blogging started some time in 2006.
So its 10 years of blogging makes me feel much older than I am :). Time flies when you love what you do.
Also May marks my introduction into Markets through my Mentor and Guide – N S Fidai who taught me the basics and much more over the years and continues to guide in different aspects of life. Remember him and his friend talking about how markets would correct and drop big way irrespective of the election on the basis of technical analysis. In a few days 17th May 2004 – Black Monday happened which increased my curiosity towards technical analysis. I consider myself lucky to have started seeing the big down tick first as mostly people generally start in a bull market. .
It is almost 12 years in the market and 10+ years writing on technical analysis. Hope that I have crossed the 10000 hours rule – Outliers and better things are in store.
I would like to thank each and every reader for their constant support,appreciation,criticisms,feedback through the last so many years. It is almost 2500 posts/ 50 lakhs hits and 5500 + registered readers. Hope to pakao you for many more years.
May 25, 2016
Thank you
May 26, 2016
Give party for Mumbaikars.
May 26, 2016
Congratulations Nooresh for completing 10 years of Blogging. Yours is only Blog I check daily :-). Your optimism, open mind and willingness to share different ideas will take you to even greater heights. My best wishes.
About Nifty seems you expect 8300 soon. My view is Let it close above 10 months moving average on monthly chart on 31-May 2016 +/- 1 day then ONLY one can think bullish. I could be wrong.
May 30, 2016
Hi Jigs,
Thanks for your kind words. Keep reading and commenting.
We are up a good 15% + from the lows. That is a good indication of trend change. We do need a dip going ahead.
May 30, 2016
I could be wrong but read every chart from historical perspective. Notice after falling from Feb 2000 Top Nifty made bottom in Sep 2001 (19 months) Then it remained sideways for another – exact 19 months. If we apply same logic Nifty fell from Mar 2015 to Feb 2016 (11 months) so most likely Nifty may come near 6825 by Jan 2017 (11 months).
Also, I buy only Mid and Smallcaps so my full fledged bullishness may come once BSE Smallcap Index (leader of current bull run started from Aug 2013) crosses its Aug 2015 high of 12203. Remember that BSE Smallcap is under performing BSE Sensex now – not a bullish sign for me. I could be wrong.
May 26, 2016
Your work is truly inspiring for lot of followers like myself.
Wishing you many more years of blogging and continuous efforts in guiding us.
Thanks for being here…all the time
Raghavendra
May 30, 2016
Thanks Raghavendra …
May 27, 2016
Congrats Nooresh for completing 10 years of writing the blog. I am regular follower of your blog, in fact I would say that your followers are edict of your blog. Thanks once again & keep writing
May 30, 2016
Thanks for your kind words. Keep reading and commenting.
July 13, 2016
I have been Following your Blog since 2012, your work has been really inspirational. I wish you all the best for the future.
Regards
August 23, 2016
One big problem on this app….date has not mentioned in any update or analysis even on comment also….so plz date & time is important to better for any viewers
October 23, 2016
thank you for help