SENSEX TECHNICAL VIEW :
Things to note :
--- > Multiple Tops were seen around 17300-17350. It also seems a like a rounding top but its too small a period to confirm it.
--- > In the near term we had lots of bottoms around 16500-16600 zone in the last few months.
--- > The new momentum trendline from March Bottoms has been broken. One important thing to note is we have seen minor breakdowns ever since March to trap shorts. So we will not make any quick conclusions here !!!!
--- > The shorter term trendline comes to around 16300 levels.
--- > The recent bottom around Dubai fiasco was at 16200. So simply put an extreme short term trend change happens only on sustained closing below 16200.
-- > Volumes have been very low as well as price magnitude also is small. This indicates lots of indecision on the index.
-- > 50%/61% retracement of last moves come at 16300/16150 roughly.
-- > BSE Midcap and BSE Small cap Index have not broken the lows of the last few days. This indicates the selling is more towards the index and broader market is making their own moves.
-- > Many other sectoral indices have not given a crack.
CONCLUSIONS :
-- > There remains a disconnect in the moves on the index and broader market. So one should not consider the index as a criteria for stock selection.
--- > In the near term strong supports at 16600-16500 and 16200-16300 range.
-- > Short term outlook becomes weak only sustaining below 16200.
-- > Major trend decider is 14700 for the medium to long term outlook
-- > There is still lot more to come in the broader markets --- Click here to read the pos WHY
Mumbai
26th /27th December ( only 5 seats left )
2nd/3rd January.
Banglore
January 9-10th . ( Confirm at the earliest as we dont take more then 10 ppl )
Sensex the next Multibagger.... a technical view which is scheduled for 20 Dec 2009.
Best Regards,
Nooresh
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