NIFTY CALCULATOR December 2021.
NIFTY CALCULATOR – CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD.
Do check this video on Nifty Calculator - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbmhiLXYx2k
What is Nifty Calculator ?
-> As per the weightages given by NSE for Nifty stocks we have created the Nifty Calculator.
-> Change the expected price and the expected Nifty will change accordingly
-> Create 3 different sheets for yourself–
Pessimistic ( where you put the worst possible prices you think . Default 15% down )
Optimistic ( the best prices possible. Default 15% up)
Neutral/Rational/Technical / Fundamental ( prices on any reasoning )
Please Note as weightages change every day by small margin this will not give an accurate estimate but will be approximate.
How to Guess?
- Everyone has a view on Nifty based on Macro, PE, Valuations, Technicals, Waves etc. Try to grill it down to the constituents. It should be a reflection of your actual guesstimate.
- Just estimating wild scenarios on the top 20 stocks is enough given the 75-80% weight.
- Start with changing default fall to 5-10-15-20-40-80 or rise to 5-10-20-40-80.
- Then change stocks which you think may not do the default move.
- Also do remember there is not a direct co-relation of the economy with the Nifty.
Things to Note
- One of the reasons we keep posting this is to make an actual unbiased guess every month/quarter.
- There have been numerous warnings as to how markets are overheated and economy is struggling from 10k-12k-14k Nifty. Understanding the constituents allows you to realize how Nifty is not supposed to reflect the Economy.
- Nifty now at the middle from a recent low of 16400 and 18600 the highs.
- Putting in the numbers looks we are going to stay sideways for some time. Whats your call ?
Interesting Observations
- Top 5 stocks – Reliance, Infosys, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC, = 41.49% of Nifty.
- Top 10 stocks constitute 58.39% of Nifty
- Top 20 stocks constitute 77.07% of Nifty
- Reliance is the top weight at 10.77%, followed by HDFC Bank at 8.54%. 20% of the Index.
- Reliance + HDFC Twins = 26.09% of Nifty (Hope you get why Nifty does not depict GDP. 26% of India GDP not equal to Reliance +HDFC)
- HDFC Twins together constitutes 14.71% of Nifty ( reducing now for some time)
- Bottom 24 stocks have less than 1% weight and total weight at 15.95%
Sectoral Observations
- Banks and Financials are now reduced to 35-36% from 37-38% a few months back. It has seen a bottom of 33.16 in July 2020.
- Oil and Gas from 16.18% in July 2020 to 12.31%
- Power at just 1.7%. After a long time Media at 0. Metals from 2.15 to 3.34%
- IT weight increased from 14.48% in April 2020 to 19.09% in December 2021 (IT outperformance continues)
- Automobile at 4.96%, near March 2020 levels
- Pharma weights stable since last year at ~3.42%
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