Nifty Calculator–Make a Guess we break 17k or 18k first.



Do check this video on Nifty Calculator -

What is Nifty Calculator ?

-> As per the weightages given by NSE for Nifty stocks we have created the Nifty Calculator.

-> Change the expected price and the expected Nifty will change accordingly

-> Create 3 different sheets for yourself–

Pessimistic ( where you put the worst possible prices you think . Default 15% down )

Optimistic ( the best prices possible. Default 15% up)

Neutral/Rational/Technical / Fundamental ( prices on any reasoning )

Please Note as weightages change every day by small margin this will not give an accurate estimate but will be approximate.

How to Guess?

  • Everyone has a view on Nifty based on Macro, PE, Valuations, Technicals, Waves etc. Try to grill it down to the constituents. It should be a reflection of your actual guesstimate.
  • Just estimating wild scenarios on the top 20 stocks is enough given the 75-80% weight.
  • Start with changing default fall to 5-10-15-20-40-80 or rise to 5-10-20-40-80.
  • Then change stocks which you think may not do the default move.
  • Also do remember there is not a direct co-relation of the economy with the Nifty.

Things to Note

  • One of the reasons we keep posting this is to make an actual unbiased guess every month/quarter.
  • There have been numerous warnings as to how markets are overheated and economy is struggling from 10k-12k-14k Nifty. Understanding the constituents allows you to realize how Nifty is not supposed to reflect the Economy.
  • Nifty now at the middle from a recent low of 16400 and 18600 the highs.
  • Putting in the numbers looks we are going to stay sideways for some time. Whats your call ?


Interesting Observations

  • Top 5 stocks – Reliance, Infosys, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC,  = 41.49% of Nifty.  
  • Top 10 stocks constitute 58.39% of Nifty
  • Top 20 stocks constitute 77.07% of Nifty
  • Reliance is the top weight at 10.77%, followed by  HDFC Bank at 8.54%. 20% of the Index. 
  • Reliance + HDFC Twins = 26.09% of Nifty (Hope you get why Nifty does not depict GDP. 26% of India GDP not equal to Reliance +HDFC)
  • HDFC Twins together constitutes 14.71% of Nifty  ( reducing now for some time)
  • Bottom 24 stocks have less than 1% weight and total weight at 15.95%

Sectoral Observations

  • Banks and Financials are now reduced to 35-36% from 37-38% a few months back. It has seen a bottom of 33.16 in July 2020.
  • Oil and Gas from 16.18% in July 2020 to 12.31% 
  • Power at just 1.7%. After a long time Media at 0. Metals from 2.15 to 3.34%
  • IT weight increased from 14.48% in April 2020 to 19.09% in December 2021 (IT outperformance continues) 
  • Automobile at 4.96%, near March 2020 levels
  • Pharma weights stable since last year at ~3.42%



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