Please send me a guesstimate sheet which takes it to 19000 or 22000
NIFTY CALCULATOR NOV 2023
Here is a sheet where the expected price is exactly
same as closing prices, download the calculator below and input prices
in the 'Expected Price' column and get expected Nifty
level
..
Download - Nifty-Calculator-Jan
2023
Interesting
Observations
· Top 5 stocks – Reliance, HDFC Bank, ICICI bank,
Infosys, ITC = 40.03% vs 40.52% of Nifty in
Oct 2023
· Top 10 stocks constitute 57.54% vs
57.94% of the Nifty in Oct 2023
· Top 20 stocks
constitute 75.75% vs 76.33% of the
Nifty in Oct 2023
· HDFC bank Ltd is the top weight at 13.25% vs 13.24% of
the Nifty in Oct 2023(After merger of Hdfc twins), followed
by Reliance at 9.11%. 22.36% of the
Index.
· Reliance + HDFC= 22.36% of Nifty (Hope you get why
Nifty does not depict GDP. 23% of India’s GDP is not equal to Reliance
+HDFC)
· Bottom 25 stocks have less than 1% weight and total
weight at 18.31% vs 17.82% in Oct 2023.
· Reliance had a demerger of Jio Financial services which is
listed separately now.
Sectoral Observations
Weightage Changes
· Banks and Financials are now decreased from recent high of 38.45% in
Apr 2023 to 35.26% now. It has seen a bottom of 35.11% in June
2022.
· Power at 2.49% increased from 2% last
months.
· Media at 0.
· Oil and Gas from 14.78% in June 2022 to 11.32%. 'Oil and Gas' is
now renamed as 'Oil, Gas and Consumable fuels'. Coal India is now classified
under Oil, Gas, and Consumable fuels. Earlier it was classified under Metals.
IOC out from the index which was classified under Oil and
Gas.
· Metals from 3.17% in Feb 2023 to 3.75% . Coal India is now
classified under ‘Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels’. Earlier it was under
Metals.
· IT weights increased from 12.64% in June 2023 to 13.64%
in Nov 2023. Decreased slightly.
· Automobile at 6.62% Increasing steadily from past few
months.(Highest weight since 2019)
· Consumer Durables weight increased slightly to 3.24% in Nov 2023
from 3.18% in Sep 2023.
· Healthcare at 4.2% increasing continuously from four
months.
· Construction material is at
2.02% increasing constantly from past few month
· FMCG now at 9.28% same compared to past month from high of
9.97 May 2023.
Some changes in classification
:
1. Consumer goods sector is now divided into Consumer
Durables and FMCG.
2. 'Oil and Gas' now renamed as 'Oil, Gas and consumable
fuels'. Coal India now classified under Oil, Gas and Consumable fuels. Earlier
it was classified under metals. IOC out from index which was classified under
Oil and Gas
3. 'Automobile' Sector renamed as 'Automobile and Auto
Components'.
4. 'Metals' renamed as 'Metals and Mining'. Coal India
no longer classified under this sector.
5. 'Cement and Cement Products' sector renamed as
'Construction Material'.
6. 'Pharma' sector renamed as 'Healthcare' and Apollo
hospital is included in the index under this
sector.
7. 'Fertilizers and Pesticides' sector renamed as
'Chemicals'.
8. LTImindtree Ltd now a part of
Nifty.
9. Demerged entity from Reliance, Jio financial will not
be in Nifty after its listing
Do check this video on Nifty Calculator
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbmhiLXYx2k
What is a Nifty Calculator?
-> As per the weightage given by NSE for Nifty
stocks we have created the Nifty Calculator.
->Change the expected price and the expected Nifty
will change accordingly
->Create 3 different sheets for
yourself–
Pessimistic (where you put the worst possible prices
you think. Default 10% down)
Optimistic (the best prices possible. Default 10%
up)
Neutral/Rational/Technical / Fundamental (prices on
any reasoning)
Please Note as weights change every day by a small
margin this will not give an accurate estimate but will be
approximate.
How to Guess?
· Everyone has a view on Nifty based on Macro, PE,
Valuations, Technicals, Waves, etc. Try to grill it down to the constituents. It
should be a reflection of your actual
guesstimate.
· Just estimating wild scenarios on the top 20 stocks
is enough given the 75-80% weight.
· Start with changing the default fall to
5-10-15-20-40-80 or rise to 5-10-20-40-80.
· Then change stocks that you think may not do the
default move.
· Also do remember there is not a direct correlation
between the economy with the Nifty.
Things to Note
· One of the reasons we keep posting this is to make an
actual unbiased guess every month/quarter.
· There have been numerous warnings as to how markets
are overheated. Understanding the constituents allows you to realize how Nifty
is not supposed to reflect the Economy.
· Nifty is now at its All time
high.
· Putting in the numbers looks like we are going to
stay sideways for some time. What’s your call?
Thank you for reading the
article
