A quick update on Indian and Global Indices.
Over the last few weeks we have seen a slow drifting correction across the world.
Most leading global indices are getting back to the recent Breakout zone or Support Areas.
Lets look at the charts.
Nifty and Bank Nifty
- Nifty last all time high was around 18800-18900.
- Although Nifty has not come to the retest the Bank Nifty is back to an equivalent of 18500-18800.
- Back at the same price was it was in Dec 2022.
- 43300 remains an important support.
- Nifty saw a breakout with gaps at 18800-19000. That remains an important support.
- The Broader Indices- Nifty 500, Nifty Allcap, Nifty50 equal weight, Smallcap and Midcap Indices have a relatively stronger chart for now.
- The consolidation to continue with Sectoral Rotations.
- Risk could be global indices taking a sharper dip. ( Charts below )
Dow Jones Index – Back to Breakout zone.
- A slow drift towards the last breakout of 34200-34500.
- Multiple tops around that band.
S&P 500 – 4320-4350 and next majorly 4200-4220 important zone.
Dollar Index – False Breakdown
- Yet another false move for Dollar Index. Has a tendency to do false breakouts and breakdowns.
- Back to testing the important zone of 103.5-105.
- This crossing 105 can be a big signal to watch for any deeper correction.
Nikkei – Back to retesting Breakout
- A very strong move from April now seeing a retest.
Nifty Total Market Cap and other Indices relatively stronger
- The heavyweights of Nifty50 Reliance, HDFC Bank, Kotak and IT stocks did not see a huge performance but have slowly drifted lower.
- The Broader Market structure relatively better.
- The Momentum has definitely taken a pause. Time for a sideways drift.
- Major Global Indices getting closer to retest of Breakout or Support Areas.
- The strength of the bounce over next few sessions will indicate if we can again get momentum on the upside or more sideways action.
- For Nifty its simpler a break above 19550-19650 triggers upward momentum. Bank Nifty below 43300 and Nifty below 18800-19000 is where risk of a deeper correction starts.
- Time to stick with the existing Portfolio strategy. Hold and Stock Specific.
- Longer term structure still very positive.
- Dollar Index crossing 105 is the trigger to watch for the current view to change.
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