NIFTY CALCULATOR Jan 2021.
NIFTY CALCULATOR – CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD.
Do check this video on Nifty Calculator - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbmhiLXYx2k
What is Nifty Calculator?
-> As per the weightages given by NSE for Nifty stocks we have created the Nifty Calculator.
-> Change the expected price and the expected Nifty will change accordingly
-> Create 3 different sheets for yourself–
Pessimistic (where you put the worst possible prices you think. Default 10% down)
Optimistic (the best prices possible. Default 10% up)
Neutral/Rational/Technical / Fundamental (prices on any reasoning)
Please Note as weightages change every day by small margin this will not give an accurate estimate but will be approximate.
How to Guess?
· Everyone has a view on Nifty based on Macro, PE, Valuations, Technicals, Waves etc. Try to grill it down to the constituents. It should be a reflection of your actual guesstimate.
· Just estimating wild scenarios on the top 20 stocks is enough given the 75-80% weight.
· Start with changing default fall to 5-10-15-20-40-80 or rise to 5-10-20-40-80.
· Then change stocks which you think may not do the default move.
· Also do remember there is not a direct co-relation of the economy with the Nifty.
Things to Note
· One of the reasons we keep posting this is to make an actual unbiased guess every month/quarter.
· There have been numerous warnings as to how markets are overheated and economy is struggling from 10k-12k-14k Nifty. Understanding the constituents allows you to realize how Nifty is not supposed to reflect the Economy.
· Nifty now at the middle from a recent low of 16400 and 18600 the highs.
· Putting in the numbers looks we are going to stay sideways for some time. What’s your call?
Interesting Observations
· Top 5 stocks – Reliance, HDFC Bank, Infosys, ICICI Bank, HDFC, = 41.18% of Nifty.
· Top 10 stocks constitute 58.34% of Nifty
· Top 20 stocks constitute 76.96% of Nifty
· Reliance is the top weight at 10.86%, followed by HDFC Bank at 8.58%. 20% of the Index.
· Reliance + HDFC Twins = 25.46% of Nifty (Hope you get why Nifty does not depict GDP. 25% of India GDP not equal to Reliance +HDFC)
· HDFC Twins together constitutes 14.6% of Nifty (reducing now for some time. At one time it was as high as 17)
· Bottom 24 stocks have less than 1% weight and total weight at 16.15%
Sectoral Observations
· Banks and Financials are now reduced to 36-37% from 37-38% a few months back. It has seen a bottom of 33.16 in July 2020.
· Oil and Gas from 16.18% in July 2020 to 12.61%
· Power at just 1.86%. After a long time Media at 0. Metals from 2.15 to 3.34%
· IT weight increased from 14.48% in April 2020 to 17.5% in January 2022. Its weight reduced from 19.09% in December 2021 to 17.5% in January 2022
· Automobile at 5.42%
· Pharma weights at ~3.2%
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