Shall i buy BHEL – The stock is down 12% ? – Answer – NO !!!

bhel

 

This is the question i got in the morning – Shall i buy BHEL the stock is down 12% – Answer – NO !!

 

 

Last year around May – June 2012 when BHEL was trading at 200 levels i had been mentioning about how it could be an investment pick and pullback trade. See the post – BHEL at 5-7 year supports

This flip flop trades from 200 to 225/240 was taken quite a few times. Stoplosses were consistently placed at 190/195 all through.

 

Last year was bullish at 200 because of the 5-7 year support as shown by arrows in above chart, but a break below 190 in previous months had broken all hopes of a reversal. Technically the breakdown at 200/150 makes the whole long term story of the stock to be finished. We may review only if it is able to cross 160 till then the stock can go anywhere on the downside. Also the sentiment with PSU stocks it can keep surprising on downside.

 

Does not make any sense to go bottom fishing rather a rise to 140 makes a short feasible with small stoploss.

More importantly given that the stock may be cheap but there are no major reasons for a big reversal in Capital Goods as a sector why should an investor buy a stock where downside now looks unlimited and upside is a few quarters away depending on whether there is reversal in the economy.

 

Any rise to 140 will see selling pressure where an investor holding the stock should look to exit.

 

Technically there is no reason for one to buy the stock. Given the sharp drop a short –selling stoploss also is very high but a move to 140 can be a short area.

 

Disclosure : No trade advised on the stock.

 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TRAINING SESSION – BANGALORE ------------

August 31- 1 September 2013  

 

For more details mail on nooreshtech@analyseindia.com or call Nooresh 09819225396 Ankit 09899899989

Nooresh Merani

www.analyseindia.com   ( For all our services )

6 Comments

  1. bijay agrawal
    August 5, 2013

    dear Nooresh ji,
    I bought 4000 wockhardt at an average price Rs 561/- . I know i am in big loss so what to do ?

    Reply
    1. Nooresh
      August 5, 2013

      Bijay,

      You need to first decide whether the exposure is very big to the size of your portfolio. If that is the case you have over allocated. I too have a positive view on the stock and advised buying at 550 but a small exposure.

      Need to wait for more clarity on the stock. You can hold on

      Reply
  2. nikhil
    August 5, 2013

    since this is a long term chart, it’d be better if one uses semi-log scale

    Reply
    1. Nooresh
      August 5, 2013

      Well not necessary to use log charts unless we have seen a move which is in times and chart becomes unclear.

      Reply
  3. sivaprakash
    August 5, 2013

    Sir ,
    What is ur view in Financial Technologies now?

    regards
    Siva

    Reply
    1. Nooresh
      August 5, 2013

      No view on Financial Technologies. Might look into MCX when circuit stops.

      Reply

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