CLSA Drops A Bomb; Forecasts Sensex at 14000, Credit Suisse sees Sensex at 13,200; Re at 55 by June –— When will they get it right !!

Last couple of days i have seen a lot of investors harping on possible Sensex levels and talking about how major foreign broking firms have downgraded Sensex targets and we are well set for 12000-14000 Sensex levels.

 

Well i would not be critical of the downgrades ad the concerns are genuine but i believe its just a bit over stretched given the fact the views were very positive in start of 2011.

 

In the end of 2010 and start of 2011 following were some of the headlines and articles.( Sensex topped in November 2010 )

 

Sensex target of 22,500 for 2011-end: CLSA

Published on Tue, Jan 04, 2011 at 08:37

 

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/sensex-target22500-for-2011-end-clsa_510071.html

 

 

Sensex to touch 22,000 mark in 12-months: Credit Suisse

PTI Jul 12, 2011, 10.29pm IST

https://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-07-12/news/29765417_1_telecom-sector-interest-rate-sensitive-sectors-banking-and-auto

 

 

 

 

NOW THIS is what they have said recently.

 

 

Shocker! CLSA predicts Sensex will drop to 14,000

 

Nov 30, 2011

 

https://www.firstpost.com/investing/shocker-clsa-predicts-sensex-will-drop-to-14000-144677.html

 

Credit Suisse sees Sensex at 13,200; Re at 55 by June

Published on Wed, Dec 07, 2011 at 22:00 |

 

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/credit-suisse-sees-sensex-at-13200-re-at-55-by-june_630510.html

 

 

By the way i saw some really good ones too….

 

 

 

JP Morgan sets Sensex target at 22500

 

(This article was published in the Business Line print edition dated November 7, 2007)

 

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/todays-paper/article1674204.ece

 

 

Also CLSA had come out with a target of 40000 on long term in 2007 possibly.

 

 

 

Bottomline :

 

Will they ever get it right??. Should we believe their headlines ??. I would say the content of the reports are well made conclusions may not be so go through the report and make your interpretation.

 

Disclosure:

My bias is positive as we have been a buyer in the major cracks below 4900 till 4300-4550 ( if it comes ) but with very stock specific interests. 🙂

 

 

Meanwhile Jain Irrigation DVR has dropped to 50 and is now falling into my radar. The discount is 57% and i would like to take some small exposure at 50-45 levels or one may even look to build an arbitrage position of selling Jain Irrigation futures and buying DVR at a discount of 57% to 70%. I expect this discount to be around 50% or lower.

 

Mind you its a high risk trade 🙂