Sensex Technical View:
The crack has been much deeper and faster then expected though a possibility of 10% correction and re-test of channel was considered many a times but not in such quick time.
This suggests index may now get into a tight range of 18800-19800 for some time.
As i have been maintaining the longer term bullish stance and a worst case dip to 18500-18800. Many people might start getting fearful with the correction and start re-collecting 2008 !. But in simpler terms its a CORRECTION not a Crash and what we may see is a similar impulsive upmove over the next few months.
In the last few corrections Sensex has dropped around 2000-2400 points from the top or a max of 12% for an average 20-25 sessions.
We are down 2150 points or 10.1 % down with 15 sessions done. If we have to stick with the time cycle being followed then we might be through with the bottom by mid of dec and a strong recovery could follow. But time cycles are not a strict technical study so one needs to wait and watch for further confirmations.
I stick to my view of deploying cash at 18500-19000 or even fresh money with a medium to long term view. A few months later the current difficult phase would seem like yet another missed opportunity. Although quite a lot of stocks which we picked some weeks back are down 15-20% investors can look to average the same. ( I did not expect the correction to be severe on the broader market so did not advise much of an exit this time around like we did at 17.5k-18k tops before)
The medium to long term view changes only if 17800 breaks.
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Regards,
Nooresh
November 30, 2010
Hi Nooresh,
Good article.
Any views on SBI and other banking stocks. And what about the large cap IT stocks?
November 30, 2010
whats your take on Power Grid now.
please give “short,Medium & long term views”.
November 30, 2010
Hi Nooresh,
Please advise on the impact of Dollar index above 81 and euro below 1.30. What could be the significance on FII activity?
Is a major sell off on the cards?
Regards,
Rajesh
December 1, 2010
Hi Rajesh,
The dollar index may not be the best indicator to gauge FII flows according to me
November 30, 2010
Your current advice abt Ion exchange. please let me know if i can enter at this rate or wait for further dip. If yes, what is the target and SL.
thanks
December 1, 2010
Hi Jayanthi,
The stock remains a long term story can do 250 over the next 1 yr
December 2, 2010
Thanks for sharing your views on the Big Caps.
Is it a good time to start buying Tata Steel or one should wait for it to test 580.
Thanks
Janak.
December 4, 2010
Hi Janak,
Tata Steel looks a good trade on dips to 590-600 or above 640 for sharp upsides.