Sensex Technical View :
Momentum line holds yet again !!
Sensex has taken a smart move from 14k levels and now is back to 14700 +. The move has been on expected lines and as has been discussed extensively in the webinar we need to watch whether 15600 is taken over or not in next few weeks.
In previous testing of the momentum line the Sensex has bounced back sharply above the recent highs.
So resistances to look for are 14900-15100 and then 15600. A move above 15600 would keep the pattern intact and target 16200 or more.
As was mentioned in last few sessions to deploy some cash at 14k-14.3k in stock specific with a stop of 13800. The view remains same to keep on trailing and watch for recent highs are broken to go for more gains or the trendline breaks to dump the stocks.
Stocks to watchout for :
Sugar stocks have continued to remain strong in the last few months and have been consolidating for past few weeks. Strong hearted traders can either buy with a stop given on dips or buy in momentum for quick trades. Risk is lil high as all are very volatile.
Balrampur stop 98 momentum above 112.5.
Triveni Engg 95 momentum above 106.
Renuka stop 132 momentum above 153.
Bajaj Hind stop 190 momentum above 223.
Nestle is yet another defensive stock which can move up in the short run after cadilla.Buy small qty on dips to give stability to the portfolio.
Strides Arcolab
Increasing volumes seen and making a nice accumulation pattern. Can take small exposure with a stop of 138 . Momentum could be seen abov 153-155 zone in short term targetting 165-180.
Sunday Thoughts :
Quick actions/decisions/discipline or inactivity with discipline which makes wealth and not superior thinking in markets.
The above line is one of the apt ones to describe a standard scenario in markets generally or even in last one year or so. I would put them into 3 sets of investor/trader groups.
An active investor with discipline and technical bias would have sold investments at 16-15k k in May and re-entered investments at 10k in April again ! . In between traded all through the bear rallies and dumps. Would now look to exit at 15-16k again and then keep trading al through.
All the above moves may not have been exactly timed but would have given a very good edge with optimized returns with lower risk. The portfolio would be largely positive even if he started at 20k !!
At the same time some long term investor stuck at 20k would have got on to a 3 times from bottom still way back from the good old days. So inactivity would have got him back to a better place then Oct/March. These section may have accumulated wealth through last few years/decades so more insulated !!
The worst placed is the over-pondering over-confused and a delayed action making investor who sold aat 12k and then at 9k waiting to take all back at 6k and is was watching till 14k with a portfolio of DEPLETED cash !! ..............When would he come back in at 16k/18k well thats when the top two groups would be thinking cautiously....
So where are you placed ????
Just a few thoughts to ponder on .............
WEBINAR RECORDING AVAILABLE
Quite a few people could'nt attend the Webinar on Technical Analysis on last Sunday - 21st June. We also received requests from the attendees, that they would be glad to brush up the session once again.
The direct link for for the recording is given below: So take ur headphones and check it.
Go through it and send in a detailed feedback to analyseindia@gmail.com. This was a trial run so later we can come up with more and better interactive webinars.
Best Regards,
Nooresh
09819225396
