Sensex Technical View :
In the last few days Sensex has continued the momentum and has come to the 200 dema range of 11200-11400.
On the fibonacci retracement basis 11650 is 50% of the last leg of fall from 15600 -7700.
The range breakout was around 7700-10945 or so and such a move would definitely give a higher target technically on simpler basis but the move is already exaaggerated so one needs to be cautious.
The 200 dema /dma levels are generally broken easily in such a move and lots of media channels may start getting bullish on that for a couple of sessions and thats when a possible breather can be in the offing. Technically one needs to wait for a reversal sign from here on and i would expect 11650 + or - 100 points to be the zone where the current rally may take a breather from though i would still wait and watch then be aggressive on either side of the trade now.
In the last 3 weeks since March last week when our 50 sessions of time analysis got over we have been on the long side of specific stocks with catching numerous 10-20-50-70 % moves in short term.
Market Observations and Thoughts :
RESPECT the SCREEN is one sentence i always remember when one is a short term trader in the equity markets.
Markets are bound to surprise and one needs to be flexible and switch sides quickly as surprises can turn to shocks in moments !!!
In the last couple of weeks the BEAR confidence was too high but the undertone was always bullish. All the shorters i met would say i would BUY stocks/investments at 1900/2200/2400 Nifty with my short profits!!. This was one of the reasons for a bottom failure all over the world with similar bullish undertones being prominent too.
The markets have given no signal yet of a reversal in the rally and as a trader one needs to respect the screen for success. The tape gives the right signals !!!! just keep watching and reacting dont go against it is a simple rule to be followed....
Detailed discussion on it some other time.
Stocks to watchout for :
Dishman moves sharply to 120 continue to hold for more. Bilcare wait for dips. Arshiya , sical ( 5% ckt ) , Shaw Wallace still have much distance to travel.
Will give a review the calls in the last 3 weeks and client recommendations also in the weekend. Excellent moves of 20-70 % grabbed in so many stocks !!
The stock has been facing resistance around 1645-1655 zone. If moves above 1655 can expect a small move to 1720-1800 in extreme short term.
Bongaigaon refinery can give a sharp 10 -15% move if sustains above 46-46.5.
Small cap stocks where good volumes seen and can move up by 10-25% in short term. Lil risky as not much of fundamental check done.
Modern Dairies stop 16 ,
Murudeshwar stop 18.5
NIIT stop of 24.5
Some fundamentally decent picks in the small cap segment which investors can look at. Technically seeing some buying on lower levels so a short term move not ruled out.
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