Sensex Technical View :
Sensex continues to move in the range on 9000-9450 and now its back towards the upper side of the range. But with lower volumes the trading momentum may not necessarily give a major move and could be limited to a range of 400 points ( 9k-9.4k).
So simple study suggests above or below the range would give a trading move for short term.Important resistance on upside is 9900-10100 band which is trendline and 61% retracement also comes closer to it.
Stocks to watchout for :
Trailing stops got hit for some shorts close to price. Will now wait for new trades.
This heavy seems to be the stock which would decide the next move in the index. 1380-1350 zone on upside and 1240-1270 on downside are critical levels in short term. It would be a possible triangle breakout above 1380 provided it is supported with volumes as it did not fall below 1270.
Cement stocks seemed to have firmed up on charts and are giving good indications in the short term.
ACC above 550 , Ambuja above 74 , Ultra tech above 430 with volumes could give trading moves for 5-10% in short term.
Chamble Fertilizers and Nagarjuna Fertilizers are seeing some activity a move above 41 and 18 could give momentum jump of 10-20% .
Market Observation and Thoughts :
There is whole lot of unusual activities which the market has been seeing of late with not many justifications. Difficult to mention a lot of them but pointing out a few as usual.
Satyam CEO sold shares on 12th and 16 th December total 38k shares value 85-90 lakhs. This is exactly one day before the deal for Maytas acquisition was announced ( other mgmt ppl also sold previously).
This is clear violation as undue advantage taken by an insider. Had reported the same in my earlier blog post. ( CHECK HERE ) . Instead of being scrutinized he may get immunity and a 5 crore a year package! ... This is a viewpoint though he might have needed money for personal expenses 🙂 like DLF CFO did some time back but at least he justified his stance! ....
Every few days we see certain small caps rising 50-80 % with a delivery percentage of 4-10%! giving a clear indication of speculative activity.
Orbit and WWIL had 5% delivery on the day stock moved up.Many other small cap real estate stocks were pumped and dumped.
There is whole lot of circular trading done through market transactions of late. ( transfer of profits and losses for accounting purposes)
Far-away options in index and stocks see sudden built up.
Stocks trade huge volumes but hardly and delivery trades ! some low floating stocks sometimes trade at 0-10% delivery !!!.
Auction markets also doing weird things at times.
It might also be a blessing in disguise as our regulators might be forced to notice of things, so in the next bull cycle we may have better systems and tougher regulations ... its all about hope 🙂
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