WILL it, WONT it !!……………

Sensex Technical View :
After todays strong move Sensex has come very close to the nearest resistace and breakout zone of 10750 odd. Resistance should be seen around the 10750 + area in coming sessions. If we see couple of sessions closing above 10750 one can expect 11650 levels in short term with 10100 as a level to watch on downside for stop.
Its a difficult question to answer whether Sensex will breakout or not . But as shown in a chart some days back after 50 sessions of downtrend we have seen a rough 20-40 sessions of counter up phase so Sensex has enough time to decide the direction towards 11650/12500.

Stock specific moves will be seen till Sensex stays above the 10100 zone in coming sessions. T

Stocks to watchout for :
Glenmark recommended on declines around 255 and 220 can book completely at 350 zone.

Deccan chronicle gave a smart move frm 48 to 55 in the day , Century looks set for more slowly , NALCO did 1st tgt.

Many mid cap , small caps and strong out of index stocks have turned bullish in extreme short term and many have crossed the 10950 equivalent highs. So keep watch on stock specific trading opportunities with strict stops.

Aditya Birla Nuvo ... if trades above 664 can tgt 705-740 . ( low vol stock so watch for increasing vols )

ICICI Bank has resistance around 490-500. Trade could be short around 485-495 stop of 505 for a dip or wait for a crossover above 500 to tgt 540-560 .

Siemens above 335 can tgt 375 levels.

Punjab National Bank has good resistance at 518-525 zone short with stop of 532 for a small dip to 495 levels.

Alok could see a move to 24-25 if stays above 21 .

GE Shipping on sustaining 228 could tgt 245.

Keep a stop of 3-4 % from entry price and buy only if it sustains above alongwith the market trend.

SMALL and MID CAP FNO speculative stocks which are seeing positive built up on lower levels and can see a good jump up in coming days if markets sustain. Can move up from 5-25 % also.

ISPAT Inds , JP Hydro , Central Bank , GSPL .

Market Observations and Thoughts :

Although markets would remain under-pressure in next 1-4 mths of consolidation phase till Jan-march but companies in the broader market has seen the worse or the downsides are limited it seems coz of some of the following observation.

Promoters increasing stakes via different options :

Although around Jan-Sept there were many promoters who backed out of exercising preferential warrants and were ready to part with a 10 % subscription loss. This gave an indication of further weakness in many stocks but now the scenario seems to be turning around slowly.

It started of with buybacks which can be termed as good initiatives in bull markets but may actually be deceiving in bad markets. Although it may not have helped but a positive eps impact could be seen some quarters ahead in case of large buy backs.

The rights route /follow on public offers are good routes to generate capital for expansion. But now in weak markets this route is being used to increase stake in a simpler manner. As creeping acquisitions , preferential allotment etc are regulated by SEBI and have restrictions. Cash rich promoters can actually go beyond the 5 % limit of stake increase in creeping method.

Many promoters have been increasing stakes in their company which may be termed as a long term confidence in their business. Buybacks is the company and shareholders money whereas creeping acquisition , inside trades in larger method is a good indication as its personal interest of the promoter. LNT , Gitanjali , Man Inds , Hindalco , IVRCL etc saw some inside trades n many others check bseindia.com SAST disclosures.

So in the next 1-4 months the above things could give a good hint of promoter confidence and interest. Also some FII Swiss Finance Corporation was a buyer in many stocks as per bse bulk deals. Keep a watch on insider trading , bulk deals.

Best Regards,



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