Dow Jones :
Short Term View :
In extreme short term the chart seems to be forming a weak pattern which can also be a inverted cup and handle pattern. Confirmation would be a break below 10500 which could lead to 10000/9800 and 9500 in worst case. But one thing to note is the support comes around 10600 zone which if it does hold could lead to a bounce also. Technically one needs to watch the 10500-10650 levels closely.
Long term View :
If we see the long term charts
1) Dow Jones moved from 7181 to 14280 levels from 2002 to 2008. The current downslide should correct to 50/61 % of the entire rally . And on a very long term basis if we take from 1980s it should correct to 38 % of it.
2) In the last dip it made a low around 10700-10800 which was very close to the 50 % correction level.
3) The next dip should take it to the 61 % correction level which comes to 9800-10000 zone. And for the very long basis 38 % comes around 9500 .
So in the bear scenario it is in the index could well settle out closer to 9800 +- 200 points.
This is just a technical view , not considering the ecconomic or fundamental scenario. Although for last few months my expectation has been September would be the month where economic data could Peak out.
Best Regards,
Nooresh
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