Inflation and Dow surprises………

Sensex Technical View :
Sensex made a low of around 1400o close to the 50 % retracement around 14050 odd . But technically cutting the extreme short term range of 14100 on lower side is a weak sign although till we dont see a sustained close or a turn around move it would be ideal to wait. The range bound markets could remain for a while. Inflation , Dow and crude cues are giving a positive cue to markets and might have hit some stops and trapped some stbt traders. Well thats one of the reasons have been mentioning not necessary to trade everyday ! as in such mkts its difficult with range being small.

Market Observations and Thoughts :

Inflation surprises with a 12.4 against 12.63 whereas the mkts were expecting 12.77-12.83 and some 13 + . But one thing to note is inflation is for the data which was 2 weeks bacK !! and quite some prices have actually risen like sugar, food in the last 2 weeks according to market-men. So this impact could be seen in coming data so a single down tick doesnt say a peak out !

Stocks to watchout for :
Lot of small stop hits or cutting of trades on cost have been the recent probs with traders but one needs to continue to be disciplined and wait . Castrol moved up sharply but subsided by eod.

IDFC below 88 could give a break to 80 levels which would be a gr8 level to take sizeable position for long term .

RCOM can be bought in part quantities on dips frm 390 to 350

Bombay Dyeing and Century Textiles seem to be an interesting long term portfolio picks which may not perform so well in short term and can drift further lower . Investors with 1 yr + view can start buying regularly and may even surprise in short term .

People interested in joining the technical analysis course in Mumbai or other cities can mail the details to or call 09819225396 for queries . A session planned for Sept 2nd week -3rd week in Mumbai tentatively . Plan to conduct one in bangalore if we get adequate no of interested people.


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Analyse India


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