Sensex Technical View :
Sensex continues to remain under pressure and should ideally take time to stabilize as it has seen a huge crack in the last 1 month. And as being mentioned before the lifeline is not broken in this fall to and we just need to wait out for few sessions and watch for reversal signs rather then going bottom fishing as wait may get longer. Long term investors continue to go staggered and dont put in total surplus cash. Only below the lifeline which now should be near to 15700 would i get skeptical and it seems difficult markets can go below those levels.
Strategy should be to waitout and buy once comfort levels increase and the long term scenario doesnt get weak with big cracks but actually gives u the opportuntity to create a long term portfolio. So ideally people who were looking for long term investment should be ready with cash and wait for opportunities. Coz fundamentally downside may get limited but the upside potential 6 mths to 1 yr down the line has no limits.
Ideally one can list down the goood investment bets and wait for stability to start adding them.
Some thoughts :
Just on interactions with few people who have got panicky just because few so called analysts have started speaking out about a bear market and cyclical downturns and many of these people consistently come on TV with different views. Coz the same ppl were talking 25k -28 k also few monthss back without a single line of caution and now after a month they are talking bearish without a line of positive .
And have seen all these bearish views come in at panic lows and never at 21k index. Also the big positives come in it at the highest possible levels. And as there is a saying when the paanwalas start buying expect the rally is about to end and when the doomsdayers start shouting it signals an end to the downturn .
Personally i only watch TV during these times coz i like to hear all these analysts changing colours quickly and its more of comic. I remember Marc faber talking sensex at 6000 when sensex did 88000 and we never looked back till 14k.
All in all TV and the news channel can only confuse or panicc u . Only thing which can keep u calm is DISCIPLINED STRATEGIES.
Best Regards,
Nooresh
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