The internal political concerns has brought in a forced correction as this was the only way the markets could see a breather.. Till there is uncertainty there would be sustained selling pressure on higher levels ..... This is where the disciplined investors would be benefitted as suggested in last few days can remain partly on cash can now look to deploying their cash very gradually in dips ... As usual i would refrain givin lot of views on politics as i dont understand it much .,... But the current scenario on the political side is gonna create a much better long term stability is all i can see... Just follow DISCIPLINE of stoplosses , trailing stoplosses , partial booking , money allocation , cash component etc so you are saved in case of volatile or unexpected moves... Long term investors will continue to get good opportunities in coming days
Technical View :
Sensex has made a double top formation and till it not makes a new top and higher close the markets should remain under selling pressure and negative bias ..Only on trading below 17250 levels we can see some good corrections and opportunities for investors... Supports on lower side in weak sentiments are placed at 16900 and 16400 levels
Some lines to read:
All the over run stocks like the JP hydro , MRPL , IFCI , TTML etc have seen the bulk of the correction and which is generally the case ... Investors for long term can look for gradual buying like 25% now then next 25% and so on coz the story remains good in all of them just it blew up a lot so needed to remove some steam.... My picks would be JP Hydro , TTML , Nagarjuna and MRPL which i would advise buying in the following manner : suppose u decide to buy 1000 in nagar , U buy 300 tomorrow at 51 and then 100 on every re decline and forget the qty with a 3 -6 mths view minimum... Maybe u wont get the decided qty but get a good price and then can add more in comfortable times at higher levels also ;;
Was a lil unwell yest and still a bit tired ...So wont be able to pick up a list of stocks for medium term but people can read the previous posts for the long term and medium term repeated stocks... Mcnally Bharat , GTL Infra , Infra stocks etc is all i remember while writing the blog now...
Sunday Thoughts:
IT IS NECESSARY to BOOK LOSSES quickly for TRADERS
As an addition to the previous articles in this space just puttin up ma sunday thoughts which i could not on this Sunday
There is one big dreaded word in this market LOSS .....But at the same time PROFIT is not that exciting word dunno why i dont see them to be opposites coz u aint elated on profits but depressed on losses ..
As i said before in my posts about NOT to sell ... Now i would just put the other part why to sell quickly but this implies only to traders...Whenever i talk about following strict stoplosses there are a whole lot of traders who start debating that they get hit and they reverse so wats the use .... And stop this crap would be the answer and justifications with some examples...
The basic problem with the not so experience, novice traders is lack of discipline , set of rules and reasons... Trading is a much much much difficult job thing then investing as u need to be right most of the time ... while certain investment duds can be taken care of by one bagger itself but trading is not the same u gotta be right a lot more times ...
Selling is the most important thing in trading because thats what decides how much u made or u lost and time is the consideration in investment 😉 .. Stoplosses may whipsaw and turn back in some cases but most important of all will save u from deep red ... Like for example somebody bought IFCI at 100 for a tgt of 110 isnt he doing business by still standing till 80 ... Ideally the stoploss should not be nething more then 94-90 ....
There is one thing which changes my view in all this is being an engineer with loads of maths all the time only way i have seen numbers till earlier days as values , probabilities , statistics...
I was just seeing that by traders logic a 500-1000 point correction is a big CRASH .. and a 3000 point rally also is not a bubble isnt it.. .. The reason is traders dont make a big kill in rallies and lose a lot in small dips also ...
Some reasons...
Profits are booked very early ...Losses are not...
( Bought JP hydro at 38 exitted at 44 ...entered at 74 still holding at 65 ... So profits made is 6 bucks loss me standing for 11 bucks ... Tell this to a merchant or baniya he ll kick ur butt saying i dont do business just to breakeven or pay the rentals : but to make good money )
Stoplosses never strictly observed
( Every trader waits for bounce above the stoploss but ends up waiting for their price and ends up in hopes and is at times inactive or just sitting and watching and hoping )
Trailing stoplosses and Conserving capital
( The foremost mistake a trader can do is cut all the winning trades and drag to losers with hopes... Second never to conserve the gains by putting trailing stops and partially booking ... FInally comes conserving capital earned or started with ... )
So all in all like a business men would say we make a lot lot of money and a kill in our DIWALI or IDD season etc that we can see some loss of revenue in slack months.... ( Can some traders say the same of rallies and corrections ... If u can u r doing good business
These things can continue next time... Will start updating more from tomorrow ...
Was just checking bulk deals Mercator Lines Morgan Stanley buy 1141500 shares at 79.19
Regards,
Nooresh
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