We had been writing for long time that we maintain targets of 14350-14400 in this rally ...Maintaining a view is important , i would rather be inaccurate and lose a little with strict stoploss then drag on trying to be right be giving different views and double sided views...The market made a top 14383 as we expected... We had cautioned all to clean up , review n restructure your business ( stocks is a serious business with a hell lot of money u can make or lose ) ...Hope people lightened their positions to chill in the weekend and couple of more days to add to it...
I do not like to put in the things to brag about one's expertise ..Learnt one really good lesson from engineering " KISS "..........Keep it simple Stupid...
" The markets as expected retraced from 12315 areas which was 61.8% of the last fall in May from 14723 to 8800 .... so 12300 would never be easy to be taken off.. After forming a triple base and a double combination pattern the markets on clearing intermediate top at should hit 80% of the retracement as per one branch of Elliot wave analysis ..85.4 % area which is our fibonacci retracement level which comes to 14370 so comes the top for now at 14383...now after this for good momentum to be really good 12900 be maintained or an ideal correction shud not go below 13600 region.,. ..... "
Maybe i wrote whole lot of jargon which sounds greek even to me....
Current View:
As written previously the current dip should be supported in the 13600-13800 region for continuation of a range bound movement....May being a bears month since history of stock markets as no good news left with annual results and lesser inflow of money always at start of the new financial year 13100 should be a level which need not be broken to keep the bulls alive n hitting the top in the other part of the year......
For all the bearish people seeing 11k-12 k levels dont u think a fall from 14350 region to below 12300 is a fall which would be a fall of more then 2000 points on a 14k index is almost 15% on the index isnt it asking for more!!!!!!!!
Stocks for Now :
At this point of time i would like to give you some long term fundamental and technical portfolio picks from different sectors which i feel should give you good returns if you have patience...
Oil Drilling and Geo :
Aban Lloyd its already more then doubled from our reco at 1200 ... But if it corrects a good safe pick ...
Great Offshore i believe is the most under rated due to promoter feuds and is an ideal pick which can safely see 4 figs n more ...
South East Asia Marine remains a favourite at lower levels...
IT Training and Education
Aptech and NIIT remain favourites with their brand value and alliances ....IT may see fluctuations with dollar and growth but the scope for these cos is totally unutilised and unrealised...
Animation and Media :
Tata Elexsi and UTV software remain in the league of next outsourcing stories which will gain momentum ...
Zee Tele our lifetime favourite saying from pre split times... Had Star Television or Sony been listed maybe i would pick them up ...
Mukta Arts is a darkhorse as i still feel the brand value of the co is still not figured in the price...
Miscellanous :
Pennar Steels one of the smaller steel stocks which we like on tech and funda restructuring ...
GSPL ...saying for long time technically anytime can give u 20-30% and safer pick ...
GMDC and Gujarat Gas would be for the fixed deposit guys...
Naukri , Rolta , Jyoti Structures could be emerging stories in near term...
Hope a whole lot of stuff given to help the investors ...Will keep adding might have missed some like Tulip , Educomp etc which have tripled or more so not that safe/....
Stocks to trade for Swing :
Escorts , Sci , Lic , REL given last week achieved their 1st trgts n more ...
Escorts , Divis , GDL can jump in this very short week...
for a small week i cant see many swing picks...
Traders can keep a watch on BATA , Great Offshore , Zee news for any breakouts ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TRAINING SESSIONS SCHEDULE :
MAY 05-06 ...Our only session for MAY so pass it on to interested ppl in Mumbai
MAY 12-13 HYDERABAD ....( few seats only )
MAY 19-20 DELHI ...( book it faster) ..
We dont take more then 8-10 people so seize the opportunity to learn and become independent in your decisions ... Better learn it before the market teaches u the hard way to us...
We are soon coming out with new schemes for people who want our exclusive services. MAy 7th or around that days we would be starting the services so wait and strategize and discipline yourself to make best use of our analysis .
Best Regards,
Nooresh
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