This is a continuation to the Technical View on Nifty.
Instead of writing a post with many charts decided to make a quick video but it ended up being a 15 mins video roughly.
In this video we compare the moves of 2011-2012 bottoming out and the current one in 2015-2016.
Technical View on Nifty @ 7900
- Time to increase cash at 7900 and higher levels and would find it tough to cross the previous tops of 8300. Also have a bunch of resistance at 8000.
- If you did allocate fresh money at 7000 it is a good time to book partial profits and keep cash for next opportunity.
- Also good time to book profits when suddenly everyone has now turned bullish. A little contrarian approach.
- More importantly we saw new sectors like consumers/pharma and others do well in 2012-2014. So maybe we could see a rotation of sectors and one needs to have some cash to latch on if you catch such an opportunity.
It has been one of the few times where I had very strong conviction to buy the dips and the same was expressed in the following manner in my blog posts/webinars and a forum video. At that time when i everyone was sure about 6400 in February & in couple of months we are standing at 7900 on Nifty. Thats like being wrong by 1500 points just to get the last 200 points entry right.
Some of the posts in February/March which are a good read may also become relevant if we dip in the future.
1) " Is it the right time to Invest in Equities " – JagoInvestor School – Webinar" - Link to the Post
2) Nifty – Bear Market Cycles/ P-E / FII Selling/ Global Indices co-relation. - Link to the Post
3) IIF Meet Video - Beg Borrow Steal and Invest on 13th February 2016 - Link to the Post
4) Explained the same even in a ET Now interview - Smart Markets Part 1 and Smart Markets Part 2
April 20, 2016
superb explanation in very easy language.
April 22, 2016
Good video Nooresh. You have done good technical comparison of Nifty of 2011-2012 with 2015-2016.
However, we are no where like 2011-2012 in terms of corporate profitability (sensex eps), interest rates, Inflation, USDINR rate, crude/commodity prices, global gdp growth (DM Vs EM) and so on.
April 25, 2016
Hi Jigs,
How is it different. Would like more data points from you.
April 23, 2016
sir, your all analysis is ultimate. kindly add the date of post for each post.
May 1, 2016
Hey Nooresh,
Nice analysis as usual. Impressed by your accuracy % as it’s quite high. Any specific views on the Banking sector giants like ICICI, SbI, PnB. With a few banks reporting high provisioning numbers, do you feel these Banking stocks and Bank Nifty in general will nose dive in the near future?