Sensex Technical View :
Technically the indices are at a critical juncture around the 14100 mark .
There are two possibilities at the current juncture which could be related to the trust vote and similarly are placed two technical possibilities accordingly .
1) Congress wins the trust vote and Sensex crosses 14100.
Sensex has a crucial trendline + recent top resistance at 14066 -14100 zone. If the level is crossed convincingly the intermediate bottom would be confirmed and we could see retracements of 38/50/61 % and some gap filling which were left on upside. 14500/15100/15800 are the levels which could come into reckoning where profit booking could be witnessed.
2) Congress loses out and Sensex does a retest near to lows
Sensex is close to the resistance zone of 14066 and if its not broken on the upside this could be a mild pullback and could lead to a retest of the lows made in coming sessions. Levels on downside 13000-13050 and 12500-12800 .
Although the above moves could be a jerky reaction and after a week or two we could see indices getting back to depend on crude, world , iip and others which will again be need to b watched in coming sessions. So lets wait and see what the politics has in store !!!
Strategy :
Well taking a speculative on a fundamental trigger like results, announcements , policy announcements is much more easier then trying to take a trading call on a political scenario which would be a pure gamble as nobody knows what is the outcome and difficult to predict the sentimental swing. Investors those who have bought partially at lower levels in large caps suggested can look to reduce at 14500/15100/15800 in case of a rally and on the other side wait for levels closer to 12500 odd to buy or on stock specific declines.
The main large caps discussed for investment were SBI , RCAP, RPL , BOI , IDFC etc which bounced much faster and some of them might have been bought at 15k-12k in a staggered manner zone but many moved above the 15k index level. So it becomes important to choose ur stocks coz Pvt banks, real estate, capital goods were the stocks which saw a beating.
Stocks to watchout for :
Cipla has given a breakout but has a crucial resitance at 232-235 .
Lupin is a stock to watch closely in coming months as a good build up being seen on the chart . Short term it could move to 740 but a close above 750 would mean a quick move.
Siemens , NTPC , LT ,BHEL etc could see a move if Congress goes through as nuclear deal impact. Siemens and Ntpc look the best on the chart for an upmove .
Resistance levels for some large caps and supports :
SBI if sustains above 1400 could even see 1520. Lower side supports are placed around 1170-1200.
Reliance Capital above 1150 could tgt 1250-1400 . Supports are at 950 .
Siemens above 500 could see 550-600 on upper side. Below 450 could lead to a bigger fall as a rally could be only due to nuke .
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SESSION MUMBAIJULY 26-27
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