Nifty Calculator– Up 37% from previous all time highs of 12430. What next–Make your Guess ?



Do check this video on Nifty Calculator -

What is Nifty Calculator ?

-> As per the weightages given by NSE for Nifty stocks we have created the Nifty Calculator.

-> Change the expected price and the expected Nifty will change accordingly

-> Create 3 different sheets for yourself–

Pessimistic ( where you put the worst possible prices you think . Default 15% down )

Optimistic ( the best prices possible. Default 15% up)

Neutral/Rational/Technical / Fundamental ( prices on any reasoning )

Please Note as weightages change every day by small margin this will not give an accurate estimate but will be approximate.

How to Guess?

  • Everyone has a view on Nifty based on Macro, PE, Valuations, Technicals, Waves etc. Try to grill it down to the constituents. It should be a reflection of your actual guesstimate.
  • Just estimating wild scenarios on the top 20 stocks is enough given the 75-80% weight.
  • Start with changing default fall to 5-10-15-20-40-80 or rise to 5-10-20-40-80.
  • Then change stocks which you think may not do the default move.
  • Also do remember there is not a direct co-relation of the economy with the Nifty.

Things to Note

  • One of the reasons we keep posting this is to make an actual unbiased guess every month/quarter.
  • There have been numerous warnings as to how markets are overheated and economy is struggling from 10k-12k-14k Nifty. Understanding the constituents allows you to realize how Nifty is not supposed to reflect the Economy.
  • For example a dip to even 12430 a previous all time highs is now 25-27% away. ( If you are bearish try taking the excel sheet to 12.5k-14k and if u can please send it to me too.)
  • For the current month my attempt would be to get a 18k-19k number on the sheet. ( Finding it tough. So time to be very selective on largecaps.)


Interesting Observations

  • Top 5 stocks – Reliance, HDFC Bank, Infosys, HDFC, ICICI Bank = 41.13% of Nifty.  
  • Top 10 stocks constitutes 58.59% of Nifty
  • Top 20 stocks constitutes 77.19% of Nifty
  • Reliance is the top weight at 9.83%, followed by  HDFC Bank at 9.29% . 19.12% of the Index. 
  • Reliance + HDFC Twins = 25.91% of Nifty ( Hope you get it why Nifty does not depict GDP. 26% of India GDP not equal to Reliance +HDFC)
  • HDFC Twins together constitutes 16.08% of Nifty  ( same for some time)
  • Bottom 25 stocks have less than 1% weight and total weight at 17.14%

Sectoral Observations

  • Banks and Financials are now steady at 37-38% for last few months. From a bottom of 33.16 in July 2020.
  • Oil and Gas from 16.18% in July 2020 to 11.39%  ( Time to watch here for any triggers.)
  • Power at just 1.55%. After a long time Media at 0. Metals from 2.15 to 3.76%
  • IT weight increased from 14.48% in April 2020 to 18.02% in August 2021 (Time for a pause here) 
  • Automobile at 4.57%, near March 2020 levels
  • Pharma weights stable since last year at ~3.46%
  • Banking and Financial , IT and Consumer together contribute to 66.66%. A big shift from being an industrial and investment linked heavy nifty in 2005-2007 to what it is now.

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