Can I really do Fundamental Analysis?

I have never understood the line which i listen from many Investors --- I buy only fundamentally sound stocks.

 

So the next thing that pops up - What is Fundamental Analysis which gives me so called fundamentally sound stocks.

 

So in this post I am trying to make a note on Fundamental Analysis for myself and check whether I can do it. I am not qualified financially ( IT engineer by qualification) , not good at understanding businesses or people neither can i read through a balance sheet,annual reports or accounts.

 

Let us look what is Fundamental Analysis.

 

This is just one of the definition i got from stockcharts.com

 

Fundamental analysis is the examination of the underlying forces that affect the well being of the economy, industry groups, and companies. As with most analysis, the goal is to derive a forecast and profit from future price movements. At the company level, fundamental analysis may involve examination of financial data, management, business concept and competition. At the industry level, there might be an examination of supply and demand forces for the products offered. For the national economy, fundamental analysis might focus on economic data to assess the present and future growth of the economy. To forecast future stock prices, fundamental analysis combines economic, industry, and company analysis to derive a stock's current fair value and forecast future value. If fair value is not equal to the current stock price, fundamental analysts believe that the stock is either over or under valued and the market price will ultimately gravitate towards fair value.

 

Now let us look into some basic steps in analyzing a company or things I need to know.

 

- > Business Plan

- > Management

- > Financial Analysis.

 

Further to this there could be many approaches. One of the simplest books i read recently was Philip Fisher– Common Stocks Uncommon Profits. There are 15 points to do a good quantitative analysis of the company – Check Link here .

 

When I go through the above three points let me look into how can I do the analysis myself. If i cannot then whom can I rely on. ( The best thing we learn in Engineering CTRL – C and CTRL – V or Copy Paste) So if i cannot do it will find some other sources who are doing it. The other people who do Fundamental Analysis according to me is Brokerages with a team of Sectoral Analysts, Investment Banks like Morgan etc, Independent Research Houses ( are there any – Veritas is in Canada) , Equity Advisory Firms . But the problem here is we COPY from people who we can rely on but can i rely on the above firms ?? I really dont know the answer.

 

So lets try doing it on my own.

 

 

- > Business Plan

 

- How can i know the business plan or rather what business does the company do. Few ways that come to my mind.

 

1) Companys Official Website.

2) Last 5-10 years Annual Reports.

3) Initiating Coverage Reports by Brokers ( this is the nomenclature for first report detailing the company by brokers)

 

Now can I actually understand how many business units does Reliance Inds, Larsen and Toubro, Ongc, Bpcl or how many countries does Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Sterlite inds operate in.

 

The annual report of Larsen & Toubro for instance is 269 pages, Reliance Inds is 200 + and majority of the large cap companies have such huge books. I remember in Engineering we would skip the reference books and go for Classes Notes or even in school look for Guides :).

 

So the next option is to rely on Brokerage Reports. Out here one analyst generally focuses on one sector or 2-3 sectors max. He might have enough time to go through those Annual Reports and various businesses. The initiating coverage report contains a good concise detail of the company.

But can you rely on these reports. Reason is simple if i am an equity research guy who meets the management understands every detail and then come out with a SELL report and a 60% down target . Will the management speak to me again. NOT AT ALL :). So even if the Analyst is bearish he needs to sugar coat it. Baring Veritas never seen any reports bashing up companies.

But that does not mean i chuck the reports. I read them but avoid looking into the Selll/Buy or Hold rating as well as the target price 🙂

 

On this basis majority of the top 100-200 companies need to be chucked out if I were to make a detailed analysis of their businesses. Also we as professionals in our fields may barely understand a few businesses. Like i may never know Flower Business ( aka Karuturi Networks in Ethiopia ) is there for real or not. Also if a company has 15 business can i actually analyze all of them ? Never 🙂

 

2) Management.

There can be many ways to look into it but following 3 come to my mind.

 

- Management Interviews and Actions.

- Qualifications and Track Record.

- Technical Capabilities and Experience.

 

Well there can be many such points about the management. But as an individual Investor or even a large Investor i can rarely get access to Managements and also to expect them to be true and fair in their approach. ( Can i say bad things about my Own Business – Nope 🙂 Never )

One can access public information on the management , speak to the competitor companies ( scuttlebut like Fischer defines it to speak to anyone but the company management.) and do as much as possible to understand the credibility and vision of the management. Also many other things like corporate governance, sharheolder friendly etc.

There can be great companies and bad managements so this is very important. In india it becomes even more important as we do not have any investor protection cells or regulations to take action against bad managements. Like for example recently Ruias are delisting India Securities at 56 rs and they did the same with Essar Steel.

 

3) Financial Analysis.

Is it that simple to buy stocks with low p-e ratios or available at 1/3rd book, Historically low p-e bands or positive cash flows. There has to be a detailed Financial Analysis of many aspects of the balance sheet and product pricing.

 

There are way too many things which need to be seen. Right from p-e, cash flows, price to book value, dividiend yield and the list goes on and on. On that people add on to more data points.

 

So if a company has many products/business units/subsidiaries the process gets more and more difficult to dig into the data points of each part. Above all whether al the data available can be trusted ( I remember this very well because i recommended Satyam at 140-110 and sold it at 160-180. Purely relying on the cash on books – Check post here. Ever since that have become wary of cash on books. Never play on luck again) .Majority of the complex companies will get out of the list.

Half the small cap IT companies we can never understand as we may never know that 100 million dollar acquisition in Europe ever existed.

 

The process does not stop here.

 

But even after this analysis every Stock quotes at a Price !!

 

After all the analysis i need to figure out is the stock has Margin of Safety ( Do read Benjamin Graham ) and prospects of Growth or Appreciation over the next few months or years. Also when do we exit ? or accept that we picked a wrong company ? When do we book profits ? Can i just hold forever like Warren Buffet.

 

So when i look into the detailed aspects then i can barely analyze 5-10 companies with lesser products, few businesses and mainly in India or in few countries. Or i rely on the financial analysis with a simple assumption – Everything stated in the balance sheet is true and historical assumptions about the company. ( now this is too risky aka Satyam or a p-e derating in capital goods like Bhel and crompton )

 

If i am buying Reliance at 900 or at 700, Larsen and Toubro at 1400 or 1000  all I am trying to do is speculate on the future of the above two companies which i have NO IDEA of or neither do I understand if they will do well or do really bad !! .  Also neither do i have any idea when to exit ? The simplest thing is I exit if there is profit or when i get scared about the markets. ( btw i did recommend Reliance and Larsen as investments at 700 and 1000 ) .

 

If i were to do the above things playing on luck then I might as well increase my odds by applying technical analysis to the above so called Fundamentally Sound Stocks !!!

 

Finally after a detailed working on this Blog Post I consider myself to be highly unqualified, unfit for doing Fundamental Analysis. But still I continue to read and speak to a lot of Value Investors who are doing it for a long time to get more insights and the process continues for the last 5 years. The reason i can do it is I am full time into Technical Analysis 🙂 which focuses on keeping things Simple 🙂

 

Some of the picks which i like on a bit of Fundamental Analysis which i do and have recommended as defensive bets continously – Aditya Birla Nuvo ( was a buy below 820 always. A must buy according to me ) , Smartlink Network ( Oops this one has highly underperformed from my levels of 42. Is it a Value trap ? Well i trust the management so will wait for couple of quarters more) , Godrej Inds ( from 200-170 accumulation this has given every reader super returns. I stick to my long term view.) , Nesco ( a buy at 640-540 gave excellent returns and numerous ins and outs, But the story is simple and for long term at least 2 + years) , Bombay Burmah ( this is a value pick acc to me and more of technical timing got us quick 20% returns so can keep holding after booking part )

 

Recently looking into a few stocks like Bengal & Assam Holding, Numeric Power Systems, S Kumars Nationwide which look interesting and have taken a bet on.

 

Please do your own research on stocks recommended 🙂 by me on Fundamental Analysis as I am totally unqualified 🙂 from the above post. On the Technical Analysis front there is always a Entry Level, Exit on Stoploss and Profit Target which is very clear and one can definitely put up with it easily. Also the track record of my Technical views is up for everyone to see as have been writing for last 6-7 years on this website 🙂 so you can find where i have screwed up 🙂 .  I continue to learn Technical Analysis and more ways to increase the odds for a better hit ratio and good risk-reward strategies.

 

One strategy which i look for novice investors is Index Funds or Top 200 cos fund. Simple reason is the exchanges throw out smaller or non performing companies out of the Index so you never see a huge fall in the portfolio over longer time. Like now Rcom, Rcap have been thrown out. Also as per market cap calculations Non performing companies start constituting a lesser weightage ( has its pros and cons) . Reliance Inds was 18% of index is now close to 10% :). This can also be the reason why many Mutual Funds tend to underperform as they dont sell on the way down 🙂

 

Please note I have nothing against Fundamental Analysis and I accept and believe the fact that  it is the Fundamentals of the company or country which drive growth. We as Technical Analysts try to find a way to time it and profit from it.

 

Also we at Analyse India try to avoid Dabba Companies or Bad Managements as much as possible and focus on Technical Trades in companies with good track record with a honest approach 🙂

 

btw this is a very long post. if you found it boring please comment. As people hardly comment 🙂 here.

 

 

Happy Investing,

 

Nooresh Merani

 

nooreshtech@analyseindia.com

57 Comments

  1. nitin
    March 17, 2012

    Dear Nooresh,
    i am regular reader of your posts. you are posting your views very sincerely and honestly. nice blend of Fundamental & more Technical timing.
    i am retired person and spend 7-8 yrs in Market. My approach is the same as you.
    still study the reports, charts, global charts, commodity charts etc. and with all these i am also taking into consideration a Main Programmer of the Universe. i am trying to co-relate all things through Astrology.
    do yo believe in Destiny? which is pre-planned? (its my view)

    wish you nice ride in all departments thoroughout your lifespan. may the creator help you all the way.

    Nitin Rode

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 17, 2012

      Hi Nitin,

      Good to know that you spend a lot of time into analyzing.

      Well i am not a firm believer in Astrology even if it works. Like you mentioned may creator help you all the way then why we as individuals should try to look at what god has planned for us ( are we really entitled to do that ).

      Thats the reason i dont read into Astrology. But would like to know what is your analysis.

      Reply
  2. r singh
    March 17, 2012

    Hi Nooresh,

    Have recently bought stocks — Bombah Burma, BOC, Smartlink & Clariant — on your recommendation and have every reason to smile at the first two and am hopeful about the other two too.. A year or two ago, I had invested in Bengal Assam and Numeric Power but exited on profits. About the latter, I did feel that it was not performing anymore as it should.
    I wish to enter Bengal Assam again. Could you please throw some more light on it.
    Excellent work. Please keep it up!

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 17, 2012

      Hi R ,

      Good to know you did participate in the above two moves. Clariant and Smartlink ( this one is already testing my patience ) will test patience as both are defensive picks.

      Yes i had covered Bengal and Assam company a year or more back around 230-250 from where it quickly did 400+. Similar time we did get into Bombay Burmah.
      For Numeric Power its a cash on discount and we can expect company to announce some dividend or any other announcement or clarity. From the managements track it seems they may not end up like Indo Asian fusegear etc. Maybe we can see a move like Smartlink from 70s to 100 which happened post their 30 rs div announcement.

      Bengal & Assam Company is a value play but you never know when will it catch market attention. Fenner India is the main thing m looking at.

      Reply
  3. PATURI B CHOWDARY
    March 17, 2012

    Very convincing and honest article.

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 17, 2012

      Thanks for the kind words.

      Reply
  4. chirag
    March 17, 2012

    Went in to analyze all stocks on charts after budget oops most of them big red candles downside .. Sell off will continue .. Now what to do ?? Weekend can’t genrate buy calls as I am born bullish

    Let me try my hand at fundamental analysis … 🙂 and the long post is ready .. Its like dude in engineer the subject u don’t like to read .. U read the index .. Headline line of each subject and say I am good at design not intredted in hydrolycis passing marks mil jayega :p

    Jai ho

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 17, 2012

      Hi chirag,

      Well i have vocally mentioned about my bullish bias. Also options to short or 150 🙂 liquid future stocks.

      Actually over this Saturday was free so though of writing this post which is very long pending. Earlier i used to have a posting called Sunday Thoughts 😛 which is still pending.

      Well engineers have their own ways 🙂

      Reply
  5. Gandhe srinivas
    March 17, 2012

    Dear sir

    By saying dont know about fundamentals you have given enough questions to our well known fundamental analysts.off course i do agree that there are some good fundamental analysts are there in our pocket, apart from some jokers in the packet they only say buy and they only say sell after some time if any small event happens as far as my knowledge a fundamentally good strong model company will not change in this regards Ramdev agarwal (betting on telecom and PSU fro long time still continue with same words)and shanker sharma are on good side e.g in 2008 every second fundamental analyst was saying tisco as per DCF method it should be 2000+ but 400+ odd levels also no body is interested still unable to understand fully the fundamental analysis and list goes on but any way i really say in market we should be techno-funda trader.

    But still i have not got enough success in the market this is my thought.

    Please share your views on KERNEX for next 8-10 days
    Excuse for grammar mistakes.

    Thanks& regards
    Gandhe Srinivas
    9849472767

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 17, 2012

      Hi gandhe,

      The post is not about fundamental analysts on how good or bad they are. I have met a lot of analysts in broking and other outfits found many to be good but the professional constraints may not necessarily allow them to be very frank.
      Ramdev Aggrawal and Shanker Sharma are market veterans. I do like listening to Shankar Sharmas observations even though many might be disputable but he does find different things to look at.

      The markets are going to stay forever and we will be investing for long time too. Keep your financial goals and be patient success will come.

      Kernex – No view as i have not seen it but generally post budget they fall a lot and then dead bounces. Difficult to trade the,.

      Reply
  6. Anand
    March 17, 2012

    Good Article Nooresh! If the Fundamentals are good and then we apply technical on that would surely help and protect our capital loss.

    Regarding Management of company – Generally, if the Management is invited to be part of some committee or Govt body etc. It gives hint that, management is trust worth. Take example of Mr. Deepak Parekh, whenever Govt wants input/suggestion – it goes to him. Also checking the awards received by person matters ( Ex: Mr. Rana Kapoor – Yes Bank).

    I liked your statement “Also we at Analyse India try to avoid Dabba Companies or Bad Managements as much as possible and focus on Technical Trades in companies with good track record with a honest approach”

    Regards,
    Anand

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 17, 2012

      Hi Anand,

      That was a good additional point to look into credibility of the management.

      Regarding dabba companies we do post on many market manipulations 🙂

      Above all yes we try to be honest in our approach and speak our view then to be diplomatic.

      Reply
  7. ViCkY
    March 17, 2012

    All I could understand is
    “I remember in Engineering we would skip the reference books and go for Classes Notes or even in school look for Guides icon smile Can I really do Fundamental Analysis?” cost I am engineer myself. Since the article was long I skipped it and would prefer seeing chart, which in one picture tells a lot more than what is covered above.

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 17, 2012

      Hi Vicky,

      I can believe you are an engineer and a smart one too. Coz the above line comes in the middle of the post. You read what was important to u 🙂

      Cheers,

      Nooresh

      Reply
  8. Neeraj
    March 17, 2012

    I truly agree with you Nooresh. I as a small retail investor never know what the company is upto and good lord who has all the time in the world to go through all the fat financials of these companies.

    Btw, I bought Godrej Ind @185 sub levels and sold it recently @245. Hats off to you and your analysis.

    Waiting for new recommendations from your side.Kudos !!

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 17, 2012

      Hi Neeraj,

      We would never know but an attempt to learn a bit of fundamentals and technicals will help a lot in the long term.

      Well i have mentioned my liking for Abnuvo as a similar pick to Godrej inds. Hope it works out over the next 3-6 months.

      Regards,

      Nooresh

      Reply
  9. jitumoni hazarika
    March 17, 2012

    sir

    Really good.. keep continue with such blog.Really helpful for us. Sir, i want to know what is the best formula to find an intrinsic value of a stock .

    thanks

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 17, 2012

      Hi Jitu,

      There is no holy grail.

      Regards,

      Nooresh

      Reply
  10. feltra
    March 17, 2012

    Nooresh ji,

    This is one post about 6 years overdue!! Too many people read this and that and set out thinking they are going to duplicate Warren Buffet or some equally god like figure… It did take me quite a long time to understand that as retail investors/speculators/traders, we will always be the last one in the food chain to receive the “news”. In fact, by the time it comes to retail knoweledge, its probably time to sell.

    To add insult to injury, one cannot even believe the Annual reports (or to put it more charitably, one always needs to know what to look for – especially the new changes, rulings etc). Capitalmarket magazine latest issue has 2 articles on how companies can hide their derivatives and forex losses/gains from the Annual reports.

    Yes, I too am trying to learn TA – and can only call myself a novice as the only thing i understand are MAs! 🙂

    Kudos to you for daring to post what every scared retail guy knows…. Wish this article were more public….

    Thanks & Regards,
    -feltra

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 17, 2012

      Hi Feltra,

      Yes. It took me quite a long time to phrase this one.

      Annual Reports are one of the best resources to study the company. But its a very tiring job 🙂 to do that.

      Btw please do share the links for those articles 🙂

      Actually knowing the MAs is one of the most important and simplest part of TA.

      The above post is just an attempt to get into the process of Fundamental Analysis. One of the basic mistakes is — Investor first buys the stock and that starts to analyze it whereas it has to be other way round.

      Thanks for your comment 🙂 i do follow your mails on other forums. If possible do mail it to me on nooreshtech@analyseindia.com.

      Regards,

      Nooresh

      Reply
  11. Kishor
    March 17, 2012

    Dear Nooreshji,

    I think now I am getting to understand perspective of technical analysis correctly. Like old proverb..”it is not important to just hammer. Important is to at what & when to hammer”. Feel you have correctly summarized by saying “try to find a way to time it and profit from it while avoiding doing so for Dabba Companies or Bad Managements”
    warm regards
    Kishor

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 17, 2012

      Hi Kishor,

      Yes we as investors/traders should keep our minds open to everything.
      Avoiding dabba companies is a must :). Although one can make a lot of money through it but a bad habbit if continued can stay for very long and be fatal.

      Reply
      1. kishor
        March 17, 2012

        Thanks for your reply. Can i have words from you on Titan Inds. I hold it from very long & is @20% of my total portfolio. is it investment sell at CMP? OR one can keep holding for few more years for reasonable gain from here onward.
        Kishor

        Reply
  12. Manjunath Kopparad
    March 17, 2012

    Hi Nooresh,

    It is very surprising to see an article on fundamentals by a technical analyst. I have been watching out your posts for almost a year and found them as guide in my own technical analysis. I appreciate your efforts in putting posts on blog on regular basis. You have taught us certain technics in technical analysis which are helping us to find near bottoms and near tops. I am happy about methodology in which we are able to gain cool 8-20% in single trade that too in a short period. I found lot of people looking for patterns, signals of their favourite stocks rather signals available in basket of stocks. Keep doing good job and also guide us as you have been doing in analyseindiastudents network.

    Now, about fundamentals which you are speaking are true and false at same time.

    True to full extent in all those cases where business structures are complex and spread across but they are false when we look into simple businesses such as Dish Tv, Bata India where in we can observe ourselves from local market and combine study with reports and management views.

    Likewise, I see fundamental analysis very effective in getting clue on India, World economy and economics of companies which can be combined with technical analysis to time the markets or stocks. We should know one basic thing i.e., when economy is bad in shape our technical targets can’t be large but we can make profits by setting achievable targets. This is what you have been doing in your blog posts by giving reasonable targets even in bear markets.

    Considering our budget which has not given any major boost to economical growth which can result in a strong demand in the economy. As a part of fundamental analysis we should note that steps taken in the budget would rise inflation coupled with oil issues in Iran. This in turn puts pressure again on RBI to either maintain bank rates higher or increase them as time goes.

    Now, only hope is growth in western countries which can bring lot of money to India and enhance corporate growth. You should observe one interesting thing in budget where our FM has increased revenue targets from corporate taxes which is my only worry and also hope. If inflation increases and growth decelerates it becomes worry or if growth accelerates in western world and Iran problem gets resolved it becomes biggest hope.

    Now, coming to your teaching where we are supposed to see charts as they look and currently, they are looking positive and we have to be on buy side till they give some negative signals.

    Ultimately my thought is simple bearish on fundamentals and bullish on technicals. If charts start showing more bullish signs I would shift my focus to bullish side as price always reflects long term story in a smart way.

    We are happy to read your posts on fundamentals too as they can’t be taken out off markets. One major thing in market is everyday, week, month and year we see price movements and technicals give best out of it to gain in short, medium or long term.

    I hope you are not bored to read my comments too.

    Reply
  13. feltra
    March 17, 2012

    Nooresh ji,

    Here are the 2 articles I mentioned in previous comment…. Pls let me know if you face any problems. Both talk about accounting standards whcih can be used by companies to hide their losses/gains in Derivatives & Forex from the Annual reports… And “adopting” these accounting standards is optional on the part of the companies.

    Derivatives (AS-30): https://docs.google.com/open?id=0ByQC3R37wKquLXlyYk1sdmhUeG1OSjE1UUdFUWE4QQ
    Forex (AS-11): https://docs.google.com/open?id=0ByQC3R37wKqueWJkZ1NNNnlRVFMxNnRDN2ZWR05tQQ

    Best Regards,
    -feltra

    Reply
  14. Satbir Kangar
    March 18, 2012

    Sir you are always excellent in analysis – it is fundamental or technically – we always follow and eagerly wait for your post, because your post give us knowledge, direction and much more about stocks and market ….. sir many time — crucial time like Monday and next week if you not post message , we will unable to decide what to trade how the market looks now and what is the direction….. NOORESH SIR, AAPNE BAHUT KUCH SIKHAYA HAI AAPNE BLOG SE….. WE RESPECT YOU DIL SE…

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 19, 2012

      Hi Satbir,

      The frequency of posts have reduced of late. But will try to add more 🙂

      Reply
  15. Shriram
    March 18, 2012

    Nooresh bhai,

    5 stars for ur article .. nothing more to be said 🙂

    Keep up the good works

    cheers
    SMO

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 19, 2012

      Thanks 🙂 keep reading and forwarding

      Reply
  16. K.D Corporation
    March 18, 2012

    Hi…Mr. Merani. I m also advisor in market. ur posts are always useful for me. thanks…i learnt very much by studying your charts and trendlines…thank you…

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 19, 2012

      Hi K D ,

      Good to know the blog has been helpful 🙂

      Reply
  17. kishor
    March 18, 2012

    Thanks for your reply. Can i have words from you on Titan Inds. I hold it from very long & is @20% of my total portfolio. is it investment sell at CMP? OR one can keep holding for few more years for reasonable gain from here onward.

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 19, 2012

      Hi Kishor,

      Titan remains a gold for long term.

      Reply
  18. Ashish
    March 18, 2012

    Nice post nooresh 🙂 you doing great in technicals, adding more flavor by doing FA as well. There are many silent observers for your posts :), people read it and enjoy, just like I have been doing earlier. I think this is my first comment on your blog 🙂

    Great work 🙂

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 19, 2012

      Hi Ashish,

      🙂 good to know you are reading regularly 🙂

      Reply
  19. Dhiraj Mark
    March 18, 2012

    Hello Nooresh, I have been following you since a month, if you remember my queries and interest on Nava Bharat Ventures 🙂 , I like your honest opinions on the stocks which you recommend, the statements are quite open and clear, secondly it makes a double cracker when you combine fundamentalyy good stocks with the technical analysis/movements. Lastly the best thing which I like is that you never say ” Do your due diligence before investing in a stock” instead you want your readers and followers to purchase the stocks and profit from them and that is something very genuine and honest from you….. I wish you all the very best in all your future endeavours and have a great great career ahead……… Kudos!!!!! and I will hope that NB Ventures too fly off … hahhaha…. 🙂 🙂 ………..Good luck….

    warm regards
    Dhiraj Mark

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 19, 2012

      Hi Mark,

      Thanks for ur kind words.

      Yes NB Ventures is showing very good signs of bottoming out.

      Reply
  20. shivaji
    March 19, 2012

    Good one Nooresh 🙂

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 19, 2012

      Thanks 🙂

      Reply
  21. M Ahmed
    March 19, 2012

    Nooresh ji,
    i am a silent reader, as i am doing master degree with teaching so not getting time because of tight schedule. from last 6 years i am just trying to learn the investing.As i found the post as best post i couldnot stop writing over here.also i think u r the master of fundamental also. i was thinking u are doing only technical but i think its a technofunda.

    plz share ur view on hclinfo.
    Ahmed

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 19, 2012

      Hi Ahmed,

      We try to avoid fundamentally bad companies 🙂 that is the main focus.

      HCL Info – the business seems to be declining so are the charts. Though dividend yield looks good but difficult to take a call on the stock.

      Reply
  22. Nitin Karwa
    March 19, 2012

    Nooresh.

    Your fundamental blog is drawing more response than technical blog. 🙂 i think its ideal you provide us ‘Techno Funda’ calls as NS would put. This is a big takeaway from your learning i.e. to watch for techincal triggers in fundamental good stocks. Firmm beleiver that a good or gr8 management can take an avg co to being a gr8 one and this is the single most important aspect i tend to look at when ananlysing co’s on fundamental basis.

    Your comments Please !!!

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 20, 2012

      Yes the focus is to combine both 🙂

      Reply
  23. Ashok Manek
    March 19, 2012

    Good one…!!!

    very interesting and helpful………..

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 20, 2012

      🙂

      Reply
  24. Ashish
    March 19, 2012

    on general note, we seem to be stuck in same 200 points in NIFTY , mostly in lower range. wondering why DIIs are trying to sell off everything now ? I know you are bullish in medium to long term , what do you think of short term ?

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 20, 2012

      Hi Ashish,

      DIIs had bought a chunk at 4500 🙂 so they got to book profits.

      Reply
  25. Gautam Pasupuleti
    March 19, 2012

    Great post on stock analysis. We are a firm believer in fundamental analysis and value investing methodologies. We have just launched our service for individual investors at http://www.analytixinsight.com. Do check it out – would love to hear what you think.

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 20, 2012

      Hi Gautam,

      Will definitely check out.

      Reply
  26. Rajesh
    March 19, 2012

    -Sensex target 17002 if falls below 17166. Upside target 17209, then 17600

    -LIC Housing – Head and Shoulder in formation ( Target – 240)

    -TCS – Bounceback candidate- 1154/1182 – Trend Support

    -Reliance Industries – 720 (Downside) /If bounces then 795

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 20, 2012

      Good observations rajesh

      Reply
  27. Mohit
    March 20, 2012

    Nooresh Bhai,

    With this post you have cleared many things and also made my confidence in your research more close and hopefully to have a service from you soon..

    Reply
  28. Dinesh Varma
    March 20, 2012

    Dear Sir,

    Please advice on the below strategies:-
    1. If I am negative on stock, is it better to buy put option or directly short in future??
    2. I request you to please provide some hedging techniques for us to tackle the worst case scenario.

    Sir I read your articles on a daily basis and I really like the content it has. Thank you so much for sharing your analysis with all of us.

    Best Regards,
    Dinesh Varma

    Reply
  29. Rakesh
    March 20, 2012

    Nooresh,

    Excellent post, this is one of your first posts which i read fully. Most of the time you talk about TA & Charts which i don’t understand. Keep up the good work.

    Reply
  30. Neeraj
    March 21, 2012

    Boarded Bengal and Assam Company flight @ 197. Let’s hope it flieeees soon.

    Reply
  31. Manoj Mohta
    March 24, 2012

    Hi Nooresh,
    A brilliant right up on the fundamentals. I first time get to your blog. Would you please post your take on some “technical analysis” too? I understand your recommendations but want to understand rationale behind them with some more knowledge. Hope you will help!
    Thank you!

    Reply
    1. nooresh
      March 26, 2012

      Hi Manoj,

      Keep reading on the blog. Will try to post on technicals too.

      Reply

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